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+---- Thread: A look at ELO rankings prior to S5 (/showthread.php?tid=2117)
- Canadice - 2022-07-31
As we are soon starting off the fifth season of the SSL, I thought it be interesting to see how the two divisions lined up with the historical rankings of the participating teams. There are many ways to define a historical ranking, but one of the ways to do it is to use something called an ELO rating. A quick summary is that an ELO ranking looks at a team's previous rating to calculate the expected outcome of a game, and depending on the difference between the actual outcome and the expected, a teams rating will increase or decrease.
Using the mathematical calculations defined here, I started from the beginning of S1 with any new team that has not yet been ranked starting with a 1500 rating. I also only used league and cup games, filtering out pre-season and Shield games.
Starting out with the original 6 teams we can see that the path forward has been very different for all of the teams. (The black vertical lines marks each new season).
Cairo being the inaugural league champions, and Tokyo being the inaugural cup winners, got off to a great start but has had a deep dive in S2 and S3. Hollywood became the first team to break a 1600 rating in S2 on their way to their first league trophy while Inter London took over the lead in S3 for their first league trophy. They dropped quite drastically during S4 but ended the league season with a great run of wins, unfortunately losing out to Seoul in the relegation playoff. Seoul Mythic FC, formerly known as FC Rio, has consistently improved their ranking during S4 and kept themselves in the first division.
The first pair of expansion teams has seen a similar journey during their first two seasons, Catalunya always having the upper hand. In S4 however, the two teams went their different ways with Montréal ending up in the second division. Catalunya was at the top of the league for most of the season but as can be seen at the end, lost a couple more games than expected and finished at a stable fourth place in the league standings.
Another expansion divergence can be seen in the second pair of teams, with Sydney having a marvelous first season barely losing out on the league and the cup on the final couple of matches. Buenos Aires have been slowly dropping their rating throughout their existence but will be able to gain some ground again in the second division.
The latest two expansion teams have been more evenly matched. In the standings there were 7 points separating the two and while Accra sees themselves at a higher ELO rating due to their results in the final week of the season, Paris is the one that is staying in the first division for S5.
The current ELO ratings are as follows:
No surprise is that above 1500 we have the five teams that have been battling it out for the league championship the past two seasons. Inter London barely held their ground in the first division but will see themselves the highest rated team in the second for the upcoming season. The two new expansion teams are joined by Accra at 1500 while Cairo, Athênai, Paris and Seoul all see themselves below 1500 in the higher tier.
As most teams go through quite a bit of change in roster during the off-season it will be interesting to see how this season will move the ratings around.
- omniscius - 2022-07-31
Ironically, I've never placed higher than fourth, but I guess consistency is hard to come by in the early stages of the league. Will be interesting to see how these ranking develop. Personally, I think HFC and Sydney come into this season as the two heavy favourites. I think it'll be a struggle for us, but if we maintain our consistency in staying in the top half of the table, we'll be fine.
- trella - 2022-07-31
The Cairo success then immediately fall off is interesting and sad to see. Hopefully we can rebound further up and build off of a great improvement last season and stay in Division 1
- omniscius - 2022-08-01
| QUOTE (trëlla @ Jul 31 2022, 12:53 PM) |
| The Cairo success then immediately fall off is interesting and sad to see. Hopefully we can rebound further up and build off of a great improvement last season and stay in Division 1 |
Hopefully you guys don't suck so bad I can't even play you next season.