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+---- Thread: Academy Task 5: Season 17 Draft Efficiency Review (/showthread.php?tid=5677)
Academy Task 5: Season 17 Draft Efficiency Review - Amidships - 2024-09-21
Hello and welcome to my "way too early" draft efficiency review for the Season 17 Prospect Draft! I am not the most creative person in the world, so this is my usual "go to" first article in most sim leagues, so you may have seen something like this from me in the past. My goal here is to take a look at the class of players that are one year older than my player and compare their current TPE to their draft position and create an efficiency score for the players drafted and for the teams that drafted them. To do this, we have to include data which can be found here: Click for data!
We'll start by going through the teams first and then move on to a quick look at individual players. As you can see, the teams stack up in roughly three tiers; the exceptional, the pretty good, and everyone else. AC Romana for sheer value and Hollywood FC for value across five selections both put an an absolute show with their efficiency in this draft. AC Romana made three picks with an astounding average draft value of -4.67 meaning their average pick was selected almost five picks later than their TPE called for. Romana are the true efficiency kings for this draft class. Hollywood FC were not too far behind, with a -1.8 spread across five different selections; so while this team was not the most efficient, they did make more selections meaning they have more potential for value busts.
In the second tier, we have CF Catalunya and CA Buenos Aires. Catalunya finished with a -0.5 across two picks, They managed to take the class leader at the second pick and then took the tenth place class member right on par with their actual rank giving the team a solid efficiency score. Buenos Aires, however, managed to be "perfectly balanced, as all things should be." This is impressive as they made five total selections.
The rest of the teams managed to draft somewhere between a one and a three efficiency score. Sao Paulo had the worst total value, but also had the most total picks making them more efficient overall than the other three remaining teams Tokyo reached a bit with their first two picks but found value later on in the draft putting them in the next spot. Following them on average was Reykjavik who reached very far to grab their first round pick, but knowing the user behind the player it makes sense. In last place is Schwarzwalder who also only made two selections this draft. Their first round pick was a bit of a reach, but again a great user making it understandable. They did, however, manage to find some value in the later rounds to improve their score a bit.
Switching gears and looking at individual players, the most efficient pick of the entire draft was Marian Gorgoń at pick seventeen who has turned out to be the fifth best TPE earner in the class! An absolute steal by all measures. On the opposite end of the spectrum we have Goku Atliketwopercent taken fifth overall and currently sitting in twenty-first for class TPE. I'm not especially familiar with the user, but I've heard good things and have seen them around other leagues so I can only assume that the team is still rather happy with their pick given the user that is attached to it!
Thank you for taking some time to read this article, and please remember that this is entirely too early to be making this type of judgement and I fully expect these values to change over time. Best of luck to the users of the Season 17 class as they continue on in their careers!
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RE: Academy Task 5: Season 17 Draft Efficiency Review - CROney3 - 2024-09-23
What I like most about this is that it does show that teams are actually fair in tune with users and how they think they'll end up. As a former minor league GM in the ISFL, it's usually pretty easy at the beginning of the draft to take players that are obviously active and engaged. It's a lot tougher finding the diamonds in the rough as it's easy for someone to go from active to inactive versus going from barely active to max earner. There will certainly be a couple outliers in both directions each draft, but overall the chart does indicate that users who were drafted later typically don't earn much, which is what you'd expect at the end of the draft.
I will say that I'm surprised that there were only about 3 people (out of a class of 29) that didn't really earn anything after creation, as one player was stuck at 350, another at 374, and then at 396 which is 1 activity check and training camp. That's actually a very good sign when I'm used to seeing about 20-30% of the draft class go IA early on. It would be kind of fun to see how historically this activity compares to other draft classes, but I'm not sure how feasible that is for previous classes. But going forward, it would be fun to compare!
RE: Academy Task 5: Season 17 Draft Efficiency Review - Canadice - 2024-09-24
(2024-09-23, 07:25 AM)CROney3 Wrote: What I like most about this is that it does show that teams are actually fair in tune with users and how they think they'll end up. As a former minor league GM in the ISFL, it's usually pretty easy at the beginning of the draft to take players that are obviously active and engaged. It's a lot tougher finding the diamonds in the rough as it's easy for someone to go from active to inactive versus going from barely active to max earner. There will certainly be a couple outliers in both directions each draft, but overall the chart does indicate that users who were drafted later typically don't earn much, which is what you'd expect at the end of the draft.
I will say that I'm surprised that there were only about 3 people (out of a class of 29) that didn't really earn anything after creation, as one player was stuck at 350, another at 374, and then at 396 which is 1 activity check and training camp. That's actually a very good sign when I'm used to seeing about 20-30% of the draft class go IA early on. It would be kind of fun to see how historically this activity compares to other draft classes, but I'm not sure how feasible that is for previous classes. But going forward, it would be fun to compare!
With the portal that type of historical analysis will certainly be available. If you want to scour the update threads (or lack thereof for some users) they are found in the Archives