2022-09-04, 12:10 PM - Word count:
7 games into the 10 game Division 2 Season, Buenos Aires find themselves sitting 5th out of 6th in their division with 7 points. Ahead of them are Adowa Accra FC and Montreal United on 13 points, F.C. Kaapstad on 11, and União São Paulo with 10. With 3 games remaining in the season, the promotion race is still wide open between these 5 teams. On goal differential alone Buenos Aires may feel a bit hard done as they actually sit 3rd in D2 with an even goal differential ahead on Kaapstad’s -2 and Sao Paulo’s -4. Buenos Aires primary issue this season has been outright winning games. They’ve only won 1 in 7, while also adding 4 draws. If the team wants to make the jump to the next level and get promoted, they will need to find a way to turn those draws into wins and get some more points. Let’s look at Buenos Aires final 3 games and talk about their promotion odds.
Matchday 8: vs Sao Paulo
These 2 teams met in Sao Paulo back on Matchday 5, with the home team pulling out a 1-0 victory. Pascal Anivierre was the difference maker, scoring the lone goal on a header in the 32nd minute. Looking at expected goals, Sao Paolo finished with .73, while Buenos Aires finished with 1. Possession was fairly even, slightly favoring Buenos Aires 51% to 49%, but Buenos Aires dominated the second half, not giving up a shot on goal. One momentary break down cost them this first leg, and at home I think they have a real chance to win this game and leapfrog Sao Paulo in the standing on goal difference. In the other two matchups, I expect Adowa Accra to get their revenge on bottom of the table Inter London and remain on top. The Montreal-Kaapstad game is more interesting, but I think Montreal takes it as they are unbeaten on the season.
Projected Table:
Adowa Accra -16
Montreal- 16
Kaapstad-11
Buenos Aires-10
Sao Paolo- 10
London- 3
Matchday 9: @ Inter London
When London came to Buenos Aires back on Matchday 3 they got torn apart, losing 4-0 to the home squad. Buenos Aires leading scorer Antonio Governo picked up 2 goals, while star midfielder Aimo Talli had a goal and 2 assists. Edwin van der Sloth picked up a goal as well, with further assists coming from Grayson Yates and Laurent Gourcuff. Perhaps the margin of victory is a bit larger than may be expected, as London dominated possession 63% to 37%, and also had more total shots (12 vs 8) although Buenos Aires were more consistent putting them on target (7/8 vs 4/12). When the game moves to London it will be interesting to see if London struggles to find success getting shots on target and if Buenos Aires will regress to the mean. Both those concerns indicate this could be a tighter game than expected, but I think Buenos Aires still takes it. In the Kaapstad-Adowa Accra game, I have Adowa Accra taking it after they put in a dominant 5-0 performance vs Kaapstad earlier this season. In the Montreal-Sao Paulo game, I have Sao Paulo getting an upset victory. The 2 teams tied in Montreal, and I think Sao Paulo can get the win at home to keep their promotion hopes alive.
Projected Table:
Adowa Accra -19
Montreal- 16
Buenos Aires-13
Sao Paolo- 13
Kaapstad-11
London- 3
Matchday 10: @ Kaapstad
Going into the final day of Season 5, 4 teams are still vying for the two promotion spots. Adowa Accra has all but clinched promotion at this point. The only way the miss is if they lose to Montreal on the final day, and then one of Sao Paulo or Buenos Aires is able to win and make up the goal difference. This would be a monumental collapse for the club, but is also highly unlikely. I see them avenging their loss to Montreal earlier in the season to cap off a strong season with an undisputed Division 2 title en route to promotion. On the opposite end of the spectrum, I see London team with nothing to fight for falling to a Sao Paulo team desperately trying to keep their promotion hopes alive. The Buenos Aires- Kaapstad game is going to eb a big one. The teams are even, having tied earlier in this season. Kaapstad is out of promotion contention at this point, but will want to close the season strong with a win at home. I can see another draw here, but should Buenos Aires pull out a win, they would be even with Montreal and Sao Paulo on points, but I have Montreal getting the promotion on goal difference in that scenario.
Projected Table:
Adowa Accra -22
Montreal- 16
Sao Paolo- 16
Buenos Aires-14
Kaapstad-12
London- 3
Matchday 8: vs Sao Paulo
These 2 teams met in Sao Paulo back on Matchday 5, with the home team pulling out a 1-0 victory. Pascal Anivierre was the difference maker, scoring the lone goal on a header in the 32nd minute. Looking at expected goals, Sao Paolo finished with .73, while Buenos Aires finished with 1. Possession was fairly even, slightly favoring Buenos Aires 51% to 49%, but Buenos Aires dominated the second half, not giving up a shot on goal. One momentary break down cost them this first leg, and at home I think they have a real chance to win this game and leapfrog Sao Paulo in the standing on goal difference. In the other two matchups, I expect Adowa Accra to get their revenge on bottom of the table Inter London and remain on top. The Montreal-Kaapstad game is more interesting, but I think Montreal takes it as they are unbeaten on the season.
Projected Table:
Adowa Accra -16
Montreal- 16
Kaapstad-11
Buenos Aires-10
Sao Paolo- 10
London- 3
Matchday 9: @ Inter London
When London came to Buenos Aires back on Matchday 3 they got torn apart, losing 4-0 to the home squad. Buenos Aires leading scorer Antonio Governo picked up 2 goals, while star midfielder Aimo Talli had a goal and 2 assists. Edwin van der Sloth picked up a goal as well, with further assists coming from Grayson Yates and Laurent Gourcuff. Perhaps the margin of victory is a bit larger than may be expected, as London dominated possession 63% to 37%, and also had more total shots (12 vs 8) although Buenos Aires were more consistent putting them on target (7/8 vs 4/12). When the game moves to London it will be interesting to see if London struggles to find success getting shots on target and if Buenos Aires will regress to the mean. Both those concerns indicate this could be a tighter game than expected, but I think Buenos Aires still takes it. In the Kaapstad-Adowa Accra game, I have Adowa Accra taking it after they put in a dominant 5-0 performance vs Kaapstad earlier this season. In the Montreal-Sao Paulo game, I have Sao Paulo getting an upset victory. The 2 teams tied in Montreal, and I think Sao Paulo can get the win at home to keep their promotion hopes alive.
Projected Table:
Adowa Accra -19
Montreal- 16
Buenos Aires-13
Sao Paolo- 13
Kaapstad-11
London- 3
Matchday 10: @ Kaapstad
Going into the final day of Season 5, 4 teams are still vying for the two promotion spots. Adowa Accra has all but clinched promotion at this point. The only way the miss is if they lose to Montreal on the final day, and then one of Sao Paulo or Buenos Aires is able to win and make up the goal difference. This would be a monumental collapse for the club, but is also highly unlikely. I see them avenging their loss to Montreal earlier in the season to cap off a strong season with an undisputed Division 2 title en route to promotion. On the opposite end of the spectrum, I see London team with nothing to fight for falling to a Sao Paulo team desperately trying to keep their promotion hopes alive. The Buenos Aires- Kaapstad game is going to eb a big one. The teams are even, having tied earlier in this season. Kaapstad is out of promotion contention at this point, but will want to close the season strong with a win at home. I can see another draw here, but should Buenos Aires pull out a win, they would be even with Montreal and Sao Paulo on points, but I have Montreal getting the promotion on goal difference in that scenario.
Projected Table:
Adowa Accra -22
Montreal- 16
Sao Paolo- 16
Buenos Aires-14
Kaapstad-12
London- 3
