2023-05-03, 11:47 PM - Word count:
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This series of articles will cover a recent addition to the SSL Index, player and team luck. Football Manager calculates something called expected goals which assesses the quality of a shot based on its placement on the pitch, the angle towards goal and the amount of people around the same area. The statistic can take on values between 0 and 1, where 0 indicates that the chance of a goal is essentially impossible and 1 indicates that the shot is definitely a goal.
Using this statistic alongside the actual number of goals that a player or team has produced from their chances, we can calculate something close to a measure of luck, i.e. is the player or team scoring on more chances than they are supposed to they are considered lucky. Mathematically, Offensive Luck is calculated by (Actual Goals For) - (Expected Goals For) while Defensive Luck is calculated in the inverse (Expected Goals Against) - (Actual Goals Against). The inverse is used for the defensive measurement as one can be considered lucky if you allow fewer goals than you expect to concede.
In order to be able to compare these measurements across divisions and seasons, the expected and actual goals have been transformed to a "per game" basis, dividing the total sum of each statistic by the number of games played by the player or team in that season.
Note that it is also customary to adjust the calculations for penalty kicks as they tend to inflate the expected and actual goals. This functionality has not yet been implemented in the index tool.
![https://files.jcink.net/uploads2/simsoccer/Emoticons/SSL_Logo_30px.png](https://files.jcink.net/uploads2/simsoccer/Emoticons/SSL_Logo_30px.png)
![https://files.jcink.net/uploads2/simsoccer/Emoticons/SSL_Logo_30px.png](https://files.jcink.net/uploads2/simsoccer/Emoticons/SSL_Logo_30px.png)
Starting off this series I thought it be good to show which teams have been the luckiest throughout the SSL's first eight complete seasons. Data exists for S9 but as it is not yet complete it does not show the full picture.
Starting off at the fifth luckiest team we have Inter London
![https://files.jcink.net/uploads2/simsoccer/teamEmotes/ILFC.png](https://files.jcink.net/uploads2/simsoccer/teamEmotes/ILFC.png)
The fourth luckiest team is once again Inter London in season 2. Season 2 saw them end up in third place behind teams such as Athênai and Hollywood but once again they outperformed their expected goals for by a margin of 0.674.
Coming up at third place is Hollywood FC
![https://files.jcink.net/uploads2/simsoccer/teamEmotes/HFC.png](https://files.jcink.net/uploads2/simsoccer/teamEmotes/HFC.png)
The second luckiest team in SSL history is Tokyo S.C. from the last season, season 8. They actually scored at more than 3 goals per game while expected to score at around 2.338 goals per game resulting in their luck margin reaching 0.799. Tokyo just barely missed out on the league by three points but saw success in the SSL Cup, winning their second cup trophy and the first since S1.
The luckiest team in the SSL actually happened in the first season with the league champions Cairo City
![https://files.jcink.net/uploads2/simsoccer/teamEmotes/CFC.png](https://files.jcink.net/uploads2/simsoccer/teamEmotes/CFC.png)