2025-04-16, 01:52 PM - Word count:
Another new season, another difficult prediction task. This season sees the addition of two new organizations, how much will this shake things up? We also are seeing a potential changing of the guard at the top, with the perennial top two Reykjavik and Schwarzwalder looking a bit more beatable throughout last season.
I’m bringing in two sources of data to help myself get my head around the season and hopefully you might find some of this useful as well. Both the season end values from last year and the pre-season results have some value here, especially considering the impact of the two new organizations and the effect of the expansion draft. I’ll be focusing mainly on the statistic predictions, though I think xG for and against can be a good approach for sorting the standings.
It should be noted that the pre-season is used for different purposes by different organizations. Some use it to work on fine tuning their primary tactics, while others take a more experimental approach – trying something a bit wilder for a variety of possible purposes. The degree of experimentation can have a dramatic impact on both the result and statistics collected.
Let’s start by taking a look at xG for and xG against.
![[Image: image.png]](https://i.ibb.co/h18FV6wf/image.png)
Heatmapping is green for “better” (higher xG for, lower xG against) results within the column. Pre-season results can be effected more significantly by the quality of competition in the two friendly matches and the previously mentioned effect of formation experimentation. I think we see a somewhat clear top three with Reykjavik, USP, and Black forest having the consistently best metrics last season and showing some strength in the preseason as well.
We do need to consider the opposition in the friendlies though. Hollywood faced Reykjavik and Black Forest, meaning their somewhat middling performance actually may signify growth heading into this season. Similarly, Reykjavik faced Black Forest and Hollywood, while Black Forest had a chance to inflate some of their stats with a match against Shanghai, an expansion team still looking to find their form.
AC Romana is an interesting team in my mind as well. Pretty clearly the worst team last season they had a decent pair of friendlies in this preseason against not trivial competition. Looking at their tactics from the pre-season it looks like they are starting to employ some of the more meta strategies so perhaps they’ve had a tactical change of heart and this improved performance is here to stay.
With regard to the predictions of standings or performance based on xG created or prevented I think you’ll still look toward last year’s top three in some order.
Passes completed and fouls made impact winning less directly. Oftentimes it mostly depends on certain tactical choices that might fit a manager’s aesthetic preferences. Here again green is “better”, though I would note that completing more passes or making fewer fouls may not be the choices most likely to generate a better result. We can see that last season’s top 3 among the lowest in passes completed, and among the highest in fouls made.
![[Image: image.png]](https://i.ibb.co/V0XqXNGk/image.png)
We can also see some tinkering this preseason compared to last season in particular with the passes completed by USP and the fouls made by either USP or Black Forest. In my experience USP frequently tries some new things in the friendlies, but tends to gravitate back toward the 3-4-3 they used most of last season so I think those metrics are maybe more indicative of what we can expect going forward. Black Forest was the run away foul leader last season, but had many fewer this preseason as they removed the get stuck in instruction. Seeing their foul total in the shield match I think we can expect that Black forest will go back to their higher intensity tackling tactic, which should lead to more fouls and lower xG allowed once the regular season begins.
This is also an area where we can get a read on the tactical preferences of the new organizations. We see Shanghai appears to be a disciple of getting stuck in, while Tenochtitlan is more reserved in defense. Tenochtitlan also has a more balanced mentality and preference for playing out of defense that can lead to more passes made (and completed) while Shanghai has a more attacking mentality.
Given how easily these things can change with the addition or removal of a single instruction it’s hard to really feel confident about predicting these stats, but hopefully this has given you something to think about as you lock in your predictions.
I’m bringing in two sources of data to help myself get my head around the season and hopefully you might find some of this useful as well. Both the season end values from last year and the pre-season results have some value here, especially considering the impact of the two new organizations and the effect of the expansion draft. I’ll be focusing mainly on the statistic predictions, though I think xG for and against can be a good approach for sorting the standings.
It should be noted that the pre-season is used for different purposes by different organizations. Some use it to work on fine tuning their primary tactics, while others take a more experimental approach – trying something a bit wilder for a variety of possible purposes. The degree of experimentation can have a dramatic impact on both the result and statistics collected.
Let’s start by taking a look at xG for and xG against.
Heatmapping is green for “better” (higher xG for, lower xG against) results within the column. Pre-season results can be effected more significantly by the quality of competition in the two friendly matches and the previously mentioned effect of formation experimentation. I think we see a somewhat clear top three with Reykjavik, USP, and Black forest having the consistently best metrics last season and showing some strength in the preseason as well.
We do need to consider the opposition in the friendlies though. Hollywood faced Reykjavik and Black Forest, meaning their somewhat middling performance actually may signify growth heading into this season. Similarly, Reykjavik faced Black Forest and Hollywood, while Black Forest had a chance to inflate some of their stats with a match against Shanghai, an expansion team still looking to find their form.
AC Romana is an interesting team in my mind as well. Pretty clearly the worst team last season they had a decent pair of friendlies in this preseason against not trivial competition. Looking at their tactics from the pre-season it looks like they are starting to employ some of the more meta strategies so perhaps they’ve had a tactical change of heart and this improved performance is here to stay.
With regard to the predictions of standings or performance based on xG created or prevented I think you’ll still look toward last year’s top three in some order.
Passes completed and fouls made impact winning less directly. Oftentimes it mostly depends on certain tactical choices that might fit a manager’s aesthetic preferences. Here again green is “better”, though I would note that completing more passes or making fewer fouls may not be the choices most likely to generate a better result. We can see that last season’s top 3 among the lowest in passes completed, and among the highest in fouls made.
We can also see some tinkering this preseason compared to last season in particular with the passes completed by USP and the fouls made by either USP or Black Forest. In my experience USP frequently tries some new things in the friendlies, but tends to gravitate back toward the 3-4-3 they used most of last season so I think those metrics are maybe more indicative of what we can expect going forward. Black Forest was the run away foul leader last season, but had many fewer this preseason as they removed the get stuck in instruction. Seeing their foul total in the shield match I think we can expect that Black forest will go back to their higher intensity tackling tactic, which should lead to more fouls and lower xG allowed once the regular season begins.
This is also an area where we can get a read on the tactical preferences of the new organizations. We see Shanghai appears to be a disciple of getting stuck in, while Tenochtitlan is more reserved in defense. Tenochtitlan also has a more balanced mentality and preference for playing out of defense that can lead to more passes made (and completed) while Shanghai has a more attacking mentality.
Given how easily these things can change with the addition or removal of a single instruction it’s hard to really feel confident about predicting these stats, but hopefully this has given you something to think about as you lock in your predictions.
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