Expansion Protection List Predictions

[Jumbo]

I wanted to take an educated guess on the Expansion Protection Lists. Just being curious on it. So first I went back and found some rules,guidelines,overall instructions from the last expansion draft. Which is here. 
"Every current organization will be able to send in a protection list of at most 11 players which includes their Organizational and Assistant Managers as well as players signed with an NMC clause for S19, unless the NMC is waived in accordance with the Rulebook or if the player is an assigned Manager for the expansion organization.
Retiring players are excluded from both protection and exposed lists. If an exposed player retires after the protection list deadline (TBA), they will not be exposed for the purpose of the Expansion Draft.
A retiring manager player must still be protected. A retiring expansion manager must still be picked and will count as one pick from that organization."

So given these guidelines I have made my prediciton of each teams Expansion Protection List. I believe I stuck with them. There were alot of players and things to go over. But I tried to organize it in different ways. I made a list of the Top 10 players from each draft class. I made a list of all players over 1000 TPE. I wasnt sure if the role of Tactician for an Organization was one that had to be protected but I did not. I just gave those players/users an advantage if it came down to the last few and I was not sure who to go with. I also gave an advantage to the younger players if I had too many players to choose from. 


A.C. Romana / Inter London
1. Ryan Van Eyndhoven - Malino8444 (Organizational Manager) - RAM
2. Kim Minjeong - lemonoppy (Assistant Manager) - ST
3. Coin Flip - midknight (Assistant Manager) - CD
4. Emmanuel Blackman - Emmanuel Blackman - CD
5. Hippity Hoppity - bfan8475 - RD
6. Andres Pedrillo - anuragb - CM
7. Rigby Emerson - Thelastheraclid - RAM
8. Rodiano Santori - njbadapple - RAM
9. Black Leg Sanji - DigDoug11 - ST
10. Daedalus Kronus - .Laser - CM
11. Pope Francis - Maxboi (Tactician) - CM

Take the organizations top TPE players first. Then I gave Kronus the nod over Milton Nunez and Gastone Poggio as Kronus is much younger. I also picked Pope Francis as the team's Tactician. 


CA Buenos Aires / Athênai F.C.
1. Viktoria Snooks - Aleris (Organizational Manager) - LAM
2. Daryl McManus - cake307 (Assistant Manager) - CM
3. Sean O'Leary - Blueline - ST
4. Leo Fiachra - leofiachra - CDM
5. Misagh Khabiri - Parriyah - GK
6. Sterling Scott - AgentSmith - ST
7. Louie Duck - xjoverax - RD
8. Bengt Rubin - kenvald - RM
9. Neslihan Genckal - Oozegirl - CAM
10. Tyranno Criminal - Triceracop - RWB
11. Roy Rivers RoyRivers - CAM

The first nine on this list seem like no brainers easy picks. I picked Criminal as the RWB position seems like a position in needed than say Kuba Kunicki - CAM and also 2 seasons younger. Roy Rivers is one of the top earners in the S21 class. 


CF Catalunya / Seoul MFC
1. Joga Bonito - omniscius (Assistant Manager) - RAM
2. Aart de Trella - trella (Assistant Manager) - CD
3. Ljubica Kamenova - Valpix (Tactician) - LD
4. Bartholomew Twinkletoes - lock180 - GK
5. Bernardo Fry - CuriousShadow - LM
6. Jordan Bamford - Bamford13 - RD
7. Nikolai Ahmed - piza - CM
8. Ben Nelson - Ben - CDM
9. Tre Qartista - ulaire - ST
10. Dáibhí Barr - JeffreyDaniels - CAM
11. Pablo Kawasaki - Voodooman - CD

Kinda of the same situation as CA Buenos Aires. The first 9 seem like easy picks. But the last 2 players (Barr and Kawasaki) I favored younger players who are earning well right now. 


Hollywood FC / F.C. Kaapstad 
1. Ali Dia - Domffl (Organizational Manager) - RD
2. Alex Calderon - Amidships (Assistant Manager) - CD
3. Juozas Kupinas - Jubka (Assistant Manager) - RM
4. Louis Ashworth - Luis (Tactician) - LAM
5. Pete Martell - ComebackZak - CAM
6. Gerd Klose - Muford - ST
7. Alexandros Mograine - sliceruser - RWB
8. Nathan Cormier - JR95 - CD
9. Hercule Hefeweizen - Wiggli - CDM
10. Duncan Walrusson - Jexter - GK
11. Evan Hunt - MattyIce - CDM

Hollywood might have had one of the hardest jobs only selecting 11 players as they have 16 players that are over 1000 TPE and they have a few younger players (S20 or newer) that are also earning very well. So here I just heavily favored players that were younger, and picked The Tactician Luis as well. 


Reykjavik United / North Shore United
1. Mikko Rashford II - RashfordU (Organizational Manager) - ST
2. Bimitar Derbatov - RussDrivesTheBus (Assistant Manager) - ST
3. Steven Urkel - ZootTX - CM
4. Marco Tentacles - Squid - LD
5. Alessandro Del Pirlo - Zoone16 - CAM
6. Ilya Prusikin - OrbitingDeath - RD
7. Brick Wall Jr. - brickwall35 - GK
8. Santos Neymarinho - 5oulja - LAM
9. George Shaheen - Jiggy - RAM
10. Orlando Mastache Maldonado - z0rem - RD
11. Jean Girard- Gordon Bombay - CD

This list to me seems pretty straight forward. You could argue a younger player over Girard but I choose to stick with this user. Side Note: FuriousChicken retired and I didnt notice the rule pertaining to that so I just left it as it is. 


Schwarzwälder FV / Montréal United
1. Wang Zhihao - Puppy (Organizational Manager) - ST 
2. Tom Mæddisen tomtommen (Assistant Manager) - CM
3. Kimi Häkkinen - Murtsi - LAM
4. Duncan Maxwell - Froste39 - CD
5. William Williams - Xotcin - GK
6. Dina Skovgaard - RAmenAmen - RD
7. Maggie Sinclair - Kyamprac - ST
8. Zoe Clarke - SleepyPlayz - LWB
9. Cameron Millwall - stevo - CDM
10. Cade Power - Jumbo - CAM
11. Predrag Dobrić - TooDear (Tactician) - ST

Being that I am in the SFV/Montreal organization. I still dont know how accurate my list is here. I could vouch for most of the players that they deserve a protection slot. But I just chose to go with some key players and load up with younger players when in doubt. Tough choices for sure. 
Sidenote: FaraDian retired as well (see FuriousChicken above)


Tokyo S.C. / Cairo City
1. Freja Ekholm-Gunnarsson - sköldpaddor (Organizational Manager) - CD
2. Puma Superhoops - kdr (Assistant Manager) - RWB
3.  Jude Greer - Metafiction - LD
4. Beaklie Eilish - kahri - CD
5. Momo Adamu - hhh81 - LWB
6. Charlie Chambers - Rich - CD
7. Zlatan Ibruhimovic - Eggcracker - ST
8. Anthony Lee - Antman - CDM
9. Fernand Rivest - Frenchie - GK
10. Ronflex - UptownCord - CDM
11. Leah Slothinson - Reno - CM

Seems like a trend that the top 9 players are given picks. Ronflex is a younger player thats already up on the majors. And Slothinson is a top earner in their class.


União São Paulo / AS Paris
1. Ryan Kirkpatrick  - Pyro182 (Organizational Manager) - LWB
2. Ashito Aoi - Summerstood  (Organizational Manager) - LWB
3. Jakob Fensterhausen - Cycro (Assistant Manager) - CD
4. Roquefort Cotswold - roquefort (Assistant Manager) - LD
5. Slab Head - ACynicalGamer (Assistant Manager) - CD
6. Yoma Hashimoto - KnowledgeBoy - LAM
7. Julian Rubio - donut - ST
8. Benecio Aguilera III - CROney3 - GK
9. João Peixoto - zeagle1 - CD
10. Nerve De Groot - SpiNz001 - LAM
11. Eric Belmont - Belmont (Tactician) - ST

USP has 5 auto protected players. 2 OMs and 3 AMs. They also had 2 players leave as they are part of the Expansion Teams (Chicken McTendie and Samson Okoro). So I went with the highest TPE in the Org for 5 players and then once again gave the last pick to the team Tactician, Belmont. 


Shanghai Dragons Football Club / Rapid Magyar S.C.
1. Thomas Hohenhahn - norththegreatestshowman (Organizational Manager) - ST
2. Marcel Voda - Daleks (Assistant Manager) - CM
3. Shingo Takechi - Darthus (Assistant Manager) - GK
4. Billy Bob - Billy Bob (Tactician) - CM
5. Imjust Ken - Dewalt27 - RWB
6. Vito Habjanič - ChiefVito - CAM
7. Trick Johnson - homercrates - LWB
8. Tony Delvecchio - Tmoney6996 - RM
9. BigMac Johnson - Newkbomb - RD
10. Snor Lax - GHamss - GK
11. Allie Bunson - Beavie - RAM

Shanghai has quite a few younger players that probably being due to being one of the latest expansion teams. I went with their top 5 TPE players (3 of which are OM, AM and Tactician). Then a group of great S20  players. And then 2 great earning S21 players who also are great users. 


Club Deportivo Tenochtitlan / Krung Thep F.C.
1. Andre Caetano - DivogoJota (Organizational Manager) - CM
2. Tonto Tut - TontoTut (Assistant Manager) - CM   
3. Dom Patterson - Dompatterson (Assistant Manager) - ST
4. Jonny Elliott - everyonesawinnerbaby (Tactician) - LD
5. Peregrin Plink - lore - CD
6. Hanibal Armaros - baz - CM
7. Bérangère-Amandine Bruère-Estrangin - JURT - CD
8. Roger Roger - By-Tor - ST
9. Sandro da Silva - gucci - RWB
10. Mazeed al-Kazmi - Afrhite - RM
11. Calvin Ball - Vrain - GK

All 4 organizations roles are held be S20 players. This is probably the list I am least confident in. Protect the higher TPE players in the organization first then get some solid younger ones. I think Calvin Ball gets protected only because they are a Goalkeeper. But you could argue that spot goes to another player. Also Bayley de Allie (Bayley) is leaving to one of the Expansion teams.


And there you have it. My Expansion Protection List predicition. I am sure I messed something up or missed a great player worthy of protecting. But It was fun looking at each team and seeing who is where and what they teams have in terms of the future.

[trella]

Pretty close on Cata/Seoul! Nice article!

[Domffl]

Top notch article

[Hero19]

Solid deduction, only time will tell who is protected.

Solid and unique little article here.

Media Grade 4/5

[Beavie]

When looking at my own team, I do not envy their position one bit. It is a hard to have to lose a handful of players for nothing as a team which is still fairly early into building its own identity post-expansion with them only now starting to build assets they hope, long term, will be with their teams as they rise up the Minor and major league. If anything, spots being opened up in their major club, likely fairly young users as it is, can force a few users they hope would "cook" in the minors more to come up early. It isn't quite as bad for some clubs with a fully established roster, take one step back but be back where they were sooner. I feel it would force a window to remain closed an extra season or two when it is already fairly far away on paper. I know my own status as to whether I am protected or not. What can I say? I think the fire type was a. . .

HOT PROSPECT...



No? Okay.

So they are in a tricky spot. I think a notable omission is Canadice since he is a user who will likely earn well long term and be able to have a fairly long career. But if protecting new blood in the league as a whole (thus users who are loyal/have a connection to them) then he could get the short end of the stick, but losing a user who you picked up and traded for at third overall will sting a lot, which is something I am learning first hand in the SHL: Expansion when you are a current GM SUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCKS.