2026-05-04, 12:42 PM - Word count:
I was told, that every game is placed on a neutral venue, but I got very suspicious and interesting data to this topic "home advantage" or not
Since its my first season, I cannot talk about S24 and previous seasons, if I do, then I was told how it was or data was from someoneelse provided, but this article focusses on the current season and data from this current season and my personal feeling about this topic in the current season. So its mainly my opinion and how it feels to me, looking at S25 data
So, what the issue with home advantage?
There were seasons, where it was almost impossible to loose at home, so the location were set to neutral stadiums, every games and since S18, there is for sure a difference between S18+ and S17 and before, so the home advantage dropped by a lot. In Season 25, my first season in SSL, many players did some testings before every game and one thing was sus: Every time, when the testing players team had an home game, they testing worked great with most of the testings resulting into wins, sometimes even huge wins like 6-0, but when the players team played as the away team, the testing phase looked very different, many losses and sometimes even a 0-6 away loss. First indication: There might be some kind of home advantage
So I looked at every game done (Matchday 1 to Matchday 7) in the academy and calculated the win rates for home and away and also, how many goals were scored by the home team and how many by the away team. Also the goal ratio
What should we expect, when there is 0% home advantage?
The home win rate should be about the same as the away win rate, a few % difference is like nothing = no home advantage existing. The home/away goal ratio should also be at about 1:1, that means the home team scored as about same amount of goals, as the away team
So, here are the results after 28 played academy league games:
16 home wins (57%)
4 draws (14%)
8 away wins (29%)
75 home goals
49 away goals
1,53:1 ratio
hmmm... more then half games lead the home team winning, compared to 29% away wins, to its 57% against 29%, thats a huge difference. Thats double amount of games, where the home team wins as away team does. So is it a coincidence? maybe. But what with the goal ratio? The ratio is 1,53:1. Its not really near the expected 1:1 neutral ratio. coincidence? again maybe. 28 games arent enough to say: There is home advantage or not, but these stats are pretty sus to me
ok, then let us compare other leagues, what do the statistics telling us there:
before we move on: the stats what we got in current academy season may be a coincidence, so it has no value. So if every other league does look similar to that, then there might be a home advantage, but if they are completely different, as in about equal win rates (home compared to away) and about ratio 1:1 or below1:1, then we can say, there is no homeadvantage
(home win rate / draw rate / away win rate -- home goals / away goals -- ratio)
major division 1:
50%/21%/29% -- 47 / 30 -- 1,57:1
major division 2:
54%/17%/29% -- 62 / 39 -- 1,59:1
minor division 1:
57%/29%/14% -- 52 / 27 -- 1,93:1
minor division 2:
52%/14%/29% -- 38 / 24 -- 1,58:1
academy league:
57%/14%/29% -- 75 / 49 -- 1,53:1
average:
54%/19%/27% -- 54,8 / 33,8 -- 1,62:1
Ok, we can see, that every league are looking pretty much the same, all about 1,55:1 ratio and about 50/30 home/away win. Only minor division 1 is a bit off, but not to more equal chance, but even more into home advantage!
Side fact: Academy has more games, therefore more goals, before someone is asking
I wouldn say much, if we would say differences in other leagues, like a below1:1 ratio or higher away win rate then home win rate. But interestingly: EVERY league are showing similar statistics, 50-57% home win rate compared to 29-33% away win rate (minor division 1 has 14% away win rate), and the ratio lays between 1,53:1 and 1,59:1 (minor division 1 has a ratio 1,93:1)
4 different leagues are showing us pretty much the same results and the fifth league is even more into home advantage? That is the reason, I have some doubts when someone says: "There is no home advantage". every ratio is more then 1,50:1 . That way off to expected 1:1 . Even home win rate is in every league 50%+, nowhere is the away win rate higher than home win rate, not even close
Someone told me: [When you flip a coin 10 times, and it lands 7 times on heads, you can´t tell its 70% chance of hitting heads], yeah, thats true. But it looks to me like doing 10 coin flips 5-times, and in 4 occasions, we get 7-times heads and in the 5th time, its even 8 heads out of 10 (minor division 2). That seems to me even more, there has to be something off, especially where almost every league showing similar results. If a single league would have showed us a higher away win rate then home, then we could say, it could be a coincidence, but no league is somewhere near to show equal win rates or close to 1:1 goal ratio!
What could explain this phenomenon?
One explaination I got, but not proofed yet: [... in the back end of the code there is always a small ´home´ advantage even on neutral grounds]. That could explain these statistics
But we haven´t much games in S25 so far, so it could be still a coincidence, when we get test results from 1000+ games, where each team faces the other team once as home team and once as away team, then we could compare the results and see, if there is a slight home advantage or not
so, my final conclusion: I have the feeling, there is some kind of home advantage and I AM NOT CRITIZISING it!. I like this ratio of home advantage, so its close to reality with the home advantage rate. We already saw a 2-7 away win in the academy league... but 2-times 7-1 home wins.. so its still possible to win high as an away team and the goal ratio at about 1,50:1 is also acceptable to me. But what I mainly trying to say is: The SSL-Manager/Admins are telling us "There is no home advantage", but my stats are telling a different story. Important: It could be a coincidence still, but I dont believe that by looking into that pretty much same ratios across all leagues. 1000+ games could prove me wrong, or right
What are your thoughts? Do you share my feelings regarding to this topic? Or do you have some stats proving me wrong? A single team results is btw way too low amounts of games to be comparable, thats why I did bit went deeper into single team stats, but whole league stats. 4 out of 5 leagues are at about same home advantage ratio at about the same home/away goal ratio, and the 5th league is even more into home advantage so far
We are half way in the current season, so lets see, what the statistics are telling at the end of season
Since its my first season, I cannot talk about S24 and previous seasons, if I do, then I was told how it was or data was from someoneelse provided, but this article focusses on the current season and data from this current season and my personal feeling about this topic in the current season. So its mainly my opinion and how it feels to me, looking at S25 data
So, what the issue with home advantage?
There were seasons, where it was almost impossible to loose at home, so the location were set to neutral stadiums, every games and since S18, there is for sure a difference between S18+ and S17 and before, so the home advantage dropped by a lot. In Season 25, my first season in SSL, many players did some testings before every game and one thing was sus: Every time, when the testing players team had an home game, they testing worked great with most of the testings resulting into wins, sometimes even huge wins like 6-0, but when the players team played as the away team, the testing phase looked very different, many losses and sometimes even a 0-6 away loss. First indication: There might be some kind of home advantage
So I looked at every game done (Matchday 1 to Matchday 7) in the academy and calculated the win rates for home and away and also, how many goals were scored by the home team and how many by the away team. Also the goal ratio
What should we expect, when there is 0% home advantage?
The home win rate should be about the same as the away win rate, a few % difference is like nothing = no home advantage existing. The home/away goal ratio should also be at about 1:1, that means the home team scored as about same amount of goals, as the away team
So, here are the results after 28 played academy league games:
16 home wins (57%)
4 draws (14%)
8 away wins (29%)
75 home goals
49 away goals
1,53:1 ratio
hmmm... more then half games lead the home team winning, compared to 29% away wins, to its 57% against 29%, thats a huge difference. Thats double amount of games, where the home team wins as away team does. So is it a coincidence? maybe. But what with the goal ratio? The ratio is 1,53:1. Its not really near the expected 1:1 neutral ratio. coincidence? again maybe. 28 games arent enough to say: There is home advantage or not, but these stats are pretty sus to me
ok, then let us compare other leagues, what do the statistics telling us there:
before we move on: the stats what we got in current academy season may be a coincidence, so it has no value. So if every other league does look similar to that, then there might be a home advantage, but if they are completely different, as in about equal win rates (home compared to away) and about ratio 1:1 or below1:1, then we can say, there is no homeadvantage
(home win rate / draw rate / away win rate -- home goals / away goals -- ratio)
major division 1:
50%/21%/29% -- 47 / 30 -- 1,57:1
major division 2:
54%/17%/29% -- 62 / 39 -- 1,59:1
minor division 1:
57%/29%/14% -- 52 / 27 -- 1,93:1
minor division 2:
52%/14%/29% -- 38 / 24 -- 1,58:1
academy league:
57%/14%/29% -- 75 / 49 -- 1,53:1
average:
54%/19%/27% -- 54,8 / 33,8 -- 1,62:1
Ok, we can see, that every league are looking pretty much the same, all about 1,55:1 ratio and about 50/30 home/away win. Only minor division 1 is a bit off, but not to more equal chance, but even more into home advantage!
Side fact: Academy has more games, therefore more goals, before someone is asking
I wouldn say much, if we would say differences in other leagues, like a below1:1 ratio or higher away win rate then home win rate. But interestingly: EVERY league are showing similar statistics, 50-57% home win rate compared to 29-33% away win rate (minor division 1 has 14% away win rate), and the ratio lays between 1,53:1 and 1,59:1 (minor division 1 has a ratio 1,93:1)
4 different leagues are showing us pretty much the same results and the fifth league is even more into home advantage? That is the reason, I have some doubts when someone says: "There is no home advantage". every ratio is more then 1,50:1 . That way off to expected 1:1 . Even home win rate is in every league 50%+, nowhere is the away win rate higher than home win rate, not even close
Someone told me: [When you flip a coin 10 times, and it lands 7 times on heads, you can´t tell its 70% chance of hitting heads], yeah, thats true. But it looks to me like doing 10 coin flips 5-times, and in 4 occasions, we get 7-times heads and in the 5th time, its even 8 heads out of 10 (minor division 2). That seems to me even more, there has to be something off, especially where almost every league showing similar results. If a single league would have showed us a higher away win rate then home, then we could say, it could be a coincidence, but no league is somewhere near to show equal win rates or close to 1:1 goal ratio!
What could explain this phenomenon?
One explaination I got, but not proofed yet: [... in the back end of the code there is always a small ´home´ advantage even on neutral grounds]. That could explain these statistics
But we haven´t much games in S25 so far, so it could be still a coincidence, when we get test results from 1000+ games, where each team faces the other team once as home team and once as away team, then we could compare the results and see, if there is a slight home advantage or not
so, my final conclusion: I have the feeling, there is some kind of home advantage and I AM NOT CRITIZISING it!. I like this ratio of home advantage, so its close to reality with the home advantage rate. We already saw a 2-7 away win in the academy league... but 2-times 7-1 home wins.. so its still possible to win high as an away team and the goal ratio at about 1,50:1 is also acceptable to me. But what I mainly trying to say is: The SSL-Manager/Admins are telling us "There is no home advantage", but my stats are telling a different story. Important: It could be a coincidence still, but I dont believe that by looking into that pretty much same ratios across all leagues. 1000+ games could prove me wrong, or right
What are your thoughts? Do you share my feelings regarding to this topic? Or do you have some stats proving me wrong? A single team results is btw way too low amounts of games to be comparable, thats why I did bit went deeper into single team stats, but whole league stats. 4 out of 5 leagues are at about same home advantage ratio at about the same home/away goal ratio, and the 5th league is even more into home advantage so far
We are half way in the current season, so lets see, what the statistics are telling at the end of season
