Preseason Lineups and Season Predictions

[Wiggli]

Goals

• Take a look at the preseason lineups in an effort to track changes from last season for the Major League
  
• Speculate on the impact of these changes and how they might shake up the league standings, by comparing to the contributions from last season
  
• Hazard a guess at the final pecking order, and remind everyone there’s still a few days to do the same
  

 
Limitations

• Lineups change, the snapshot I use for last season was the latest file, but may not capture all of the variations or even the most common formation used.
  
• Similarly for the upcoming season lineups may change in personnel and formation, the preseason in particular, might be a testing ground to try out something new and not be the best representation of the next season.
  
•  I’ll only be briefly be mentioning the effects of personnel development or regression, which should play an equally large role in season over season changes in club performance.
  

 
Ok enough with the caveats; on with the show. We’ll reveal each team from least to most likely to top the table, organized by tier.
 
Youth Movement

Spoiler (click to show)

8th: São Paulo


A new infusion of talent for the ever optimistic club São Paulo. A number of new draftees find themselves thrust in the starting side. And the formation employed in the preseason suggests an aggressive approach similar to their personnel decisions. They will score goals, but also concede quite a few and I think we should expect similar performance to last year, though it will be an entertaining spectacle.

7th: CF Catalunya


Key additions: Red Panda, Hercule Hefeweizen, Vis Grappo
Key departures: Maple Dogwood, Donna Rumma, Manuel Neuer
Another team with new draftees fitting in immediately including a bold switch at jersey #1. In an effort to consolidate the active players Vis Grappo joins the top team, leaving the skilled but mentally checked out Neuer on the minor squad. Primary goal scorer Bayley de Allie returns, but a primary challenge for the squad will be delivering the ball to the attacking third. The biggest challenge though will be in defense. There is a lack of defenders available to the team which will need to be solved to advance their points total. In the end I expect CF Catalunya to take a step back this year, but it should provide the opportunity for the new active nucleus to build chemistry together.

 
The Migrating Middle

Spoiler (click to show)

6th: Tokyo S.C.


Key additions: Fernand Rivest, Freja Ekholm-Gunnarsson, Jane Hagglund
Key departures: Dobby Roobe, Franco Torres, Gunnar Kennedy
The losses of Roobe and Torres are replaced with sidegrades or even upgrades. But losing Kennedy is harder to replace. Van Garritsen moves to a more attacking role, replaced with a more support minded right back in Freja. The net effect is a loss of playmaking ability in the central midfield, but key playmaker Greer remains an asset on the flank to unlock defenses. These middle teams are very difficult to separate, but Tokyo leaves me with a few more unanswered questions.
 
5th: A.C. Romana


Key additions: Bob Kronkowski, Tyson King, Jay Cue, Hippity Hoppity, Breadneeq LaVert
Key Departures: Vui Kemoeatu, Jerry, Bob Divesinalot, Tyson Nunez, Glenn Smart
The right wing retooled with new draft picks Kronkowski and Hippity Hoppity. I believe the pair will really grow into the role in future years, but that’s a lot of pressure for new draftees to produce right away. Thankfully as we see in the last season’s stats more playmaking came from center and left flanks. With regard to goals however Jerry and Kemoatu’s contributions may me missed more dearly. We also saw a reimagination of the central defense, but the assets are still in place and even grew with a quiet coup of a post-draft trade acquiring LaVert a capable if inactive defender that should give the club many options for a solid defense.

4th: CA Buenos Aires


Key additions: Bérangère-Amandine Bruère-Estrangin
Key departures: Henrik Lind
Slightly fewer points accumulated in S16 compared to S15 but a strong cup performance vaults CA Buenos Aires to the 4th spot in the predictions. There is something to be said for stability, and the only change being a swap of veteran centre back Lind for the similarly skilled Bruère-Estrangin means CABA can continue to build from the solid base they’ve built. Maybe I’m overreacting to the cup performance as there is more reason to believe the other teams in this tier could see an elevated potential, but hopefully this stable squad can find their form quickly and maintain it throughout the season.
 
3rd: Hollywood FC


Key additions: Cam’ron Bailey, Ali Dia
Key Departures: Mikko Rashford, Joao Cabral
Bailey saw play on the top side last year, but should expect a much larger role this season with Rashford’s retirement. Lining up as an enganche in the preseason they will bear the majority of the responsibility in picking up the playmaking slack Rashford’s departure leaves. Dia fills Cabral’s central defender slot, which at the moment is a secondary position for him. On the whole the team strategy can remain much the same and I think the losses have been more than adequately replaced. Hollywood improved the most from S15 to S16, and I think there is reason to believe further growth this season.

 
Cream of the Crop

Spoiler (click to show)

2nd: Schwarzwälder FV


No changes for last year’s second best team. A previous analysis showed they tied ultimate league champion Reykjavik in xG, but whether through variance or some systematic deficit were less successful at converting xG to goals. I don’t know what else to say they’re a great team I think clearly a step above the rest of the pack with one single exception.

1st: Reykjavik U.
 

Key additions: Steven Urkel, Marco Tentacles
Key departures: Tata Youre, Zizou Lopta
More moving pieces than SFV, but I think the net effect is an improvement for Reykjavik U. North Shore, the minor league affiliate for the organization, has dominated the minor leagues and it's time for the major league team to reap the reward. Urkel and Tentacles should slot right into their roles with the skill and experience to perform at a high level right away. Arasov moves from right back to his more natural position of LAM. While the changes may take some time to gel I think there is reason to believe Reykjavik could find yet another level of dominance this year.