2026-04-25, 01:32 AM - Word count:
(This post was last modified: 2026-04-25, 01:36 AM by McLumberjack. Edited 1 time in total.)
**DISCLAIMER THIS IS JUST FOR FUN, IN NO WAY DOES THIS MEAN THIS IS GOING TO HAPPEN. THESE TESTS DO NOT ACCOUNT FOR FORMATION CHANGES, EXTRA PLAYERS, TPE GAIN AND MUCH MORE. IT GIVES A DECENT IDEA OF WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF ALL TEAMS WERE FROZEN IN PLACE RIGHT NOW AND PLAYED THE REST OF THE SEASON AS IS**
With that out of the way.... Lets take a look! So for this test I took the save file after MD5, I then used fmrte to fully heal (perfect fitness, morale, cohesion everything) every player on every team and then used the freeze function. This means that for the entire sim after every game each player got fully healed so every match was simmed like it actually is. the standings looked like this after the first 5 matchdays:
![[Image: academy-standings.png]](https://i.postimg.cc/Kv0tCQCq/academy-standings.png)
I ran 20 simulations, once again not enough to get a full view but certainly enough to get a decent idea. Here are the results displaying the percentage chance of the team getting each position and a graph displaying the spread of points the team could get.
![[Image: Div1-01-Probability-Matrix.png]](https://i.postimg.cc/nFmgZQFY/Div1-01-Probability-Matrix.png)
![[Image: Div1-02-Points-Range.png]](https://i.postimg.cc/KxxwSz6b/Div1-02-Points-Range.png)
![[Image: 2026-04-25-10-03-13-01-Team-Stats-Excel.png]](https://i.postimg.cc/mTMHYLrL/2026-04-25-10-03-13-01-Team-Stats-Excel.png)
Stockholm
I do not think it will come as a surprise that eventhough Stockholm stumbled in the last matchday, they are still the favorites to win the academy as it stands. They have an incredibly strong team that is training well and a up and coming wondercoach in @Hoodz_91 . Stockholm have the absolute smallest spread when it comes to positions, with their floor being 2nd place. 70% to win the title does mean that anything OTHER than the title will be seen as a failure. Will Hoodz and his team be able to deal with this pressure and take it over the line or will they crumble and fall at the last minute Arsenal style?
Adowa Accra
To some it might be surprising that the current first placed team "only" has a 25% chance to win, however if you look deeper at the numbers this should not come as a surprise to anyone. Accra is currently struggling a bit in the TPE department, being last of all player teams in ever single one of them (total TPE, average TPE, total TPE earned, average TPE earned). Not all of this their fault, they were the last team that only had 7 players, although with their recent addition of Mullet Man (@Ogreishh) who also had a great debut, they have closed the gap slightly. All of this just makes it more impressive that their manager @RoyRivers has managed to whip these boys into shape and get them into first place. Their upcoming match against stockholm might prove a vital one for the title. Very interestingly it does seem like accra is a bit feast or famine, having a 25% chance of first but only a 10% chance of 2nd. Their spread gives them the chance to fall off all the way to 5th.
Victoria Falls Eagles
If you told me Victoria where the team most likely to end 2nd after the first two matches they played I would have probably called you crazy... however the madlad @Giacomino_raiola has somehow, someway once again managed to get the absolute best out of his players and suddenly they look very scary. Although the title seems quite far (with only 1 win in 20 sims) being given a 50% chance to get 2nd is nothing to scoff at for a team that spend some time at the bottom of the table. Having 4th as their absolute bottom means that whatever happens it seems like Gia has once again managed to get a team in the top half of the table.
Istanbul
What a difference a week makes! Istanbul was down in the dumps, lingering down in bottom and not looking to have any answers to the questions being asked of them. However a decisive tactical adjustment from manager @Afrhite has gotten the best out of his players. An incredible win over Stockholm means the only way for istanbul appears to be up. A median position of 45% of 4th is nothing to scoff at, take into account that 3rd and even 2nd are still in the cards and I think any one of the players or manager would have signed for that. Now I wonder how many seasons I would have to sim before @Bloodless got a goal.....
Port Royal
Now it is no secret that the fm gods have not been favorable to Port Royal, they are currently at the very bottom of the table. However I think this outcome should provide some hope for the Port Royal players and manager. They have the largest spread out of any of the teams, in the simulations they have gotten 8th, 7th, 6th, 5th, 4th AND 3rd which genuinely means anything can happen. Pair this with the fact they have the most human players with 9 and the fact that they have had one of the highest tpe earning rates so far. I think with some tactical tweaks and luck it is not out of the realm of possibilties for Port royal to still get 2nd or even 1st place this season! Granted if they keep earning like they have.
Sydney
Now I know I have been throwing a lot of banter @CamGoldenGun 's way this season but let it be clear, I want EVERY team to do well. Sydney has a great group of great players, they have just not been able to put everything together. The last match they played, even if they lost they did play better so I do think they are going the right direction. The spread currently has them falling between 5th and 8th. I think 1st and 2nd is out of the question at this point, however, with some good tactics, some good earning and a dose of luck I think a top 3/4 finish is not out of the question.
There are my predictions! Once again, anything can happen, no one is mathmatically out yet. For all the people who gotten a prediction they dont agree with.... WORK EXTRA HARD AND PROVE ME WRONG THEN >:)
PS
This is not scientific, but some of the sims I checked the top goalscorer, I think I checked in half of them (so 10) and in 1 of those 10 @Jeanious broke the academy goalscoring record:
![[Image: huntelrooyrecord.png]](https://i.postimg.cc/FKqKSC7L/huntelrooyrecord.png)
With that out of the way.... Lets take a look! So for this test I took the save file after MD5, I then used fmrte to fully heal (perfect fitness, morale, cohesion everything) every player on every team and then used the freeze function. This means that for the entire sim after every game each player got fully healed so every match was simmed like it actually is. the standings looked like this after the first 5 matchdays:
I ran 20 simulations, once again not enough to get a full view but certainly enough to get a decent idea. Here are the results displaying the percentage chance of the team getting each position and a graph displaying the spread of points the team could get.
Stockholm
I do not think it will come as a surprise that eventhough Stockholm stumbled in the last matchday, they are still the favorites to win the academy as it stands. They have an incredibly strong team that is training well and a up and coming wondercoach in @Hoodz_91 . Stockholm have the absolute smallest spread when it comes to positions, with their floor being 2nd place. 70% to win the title does mean that anything OTHER than the title will be seen as a failure. Will Hoodz and his team be able to deal with this pressure and take it over the line or will they crumble and fall at the last minute Arsenal style?
Adowa Accra
To some it might be surprising that the current first placed team "only" has a 25% chance to win, however if you look deeper at the numbers this should not come as a surprise to anyone. Accra is currently struggling a bit in the TPE department, being last of all player teams in ever single one of them (total TPE, average TPE, total TPE earned, average TPE earned). Not all of this their fault, they were the last team that only had 7 players, although with their recent addition of Mullet Man (@Ogreishh) who also had a great debut, they have closed the gap slightly. All of this just makes it more impressive that their manager @RoyRivers has managed to whip these boys into shape and get them into first place. Their upcoming match against stockholm might prove a vital one for the title. Very interestingly it does seem like accra is a bit feast or famine, having a 25% chance of first but only a 10% chance of 2nd. Their spread gives them the chance to fall off all the way to 5th.
Victoria Falls Eagles
If you told me Victoria where the team most likely to end 2nd after the first two matches they played I would have probably called you crazy... however the madlad @Giacomino_raiola has somehow, someway once again managed to get the absolute best out of his players and suddenly they look very scary. Although the title seems quite far (with only 1 win in 20 sims) being given a 50% chance to get 2nd is nothing to scoff at for a team that spend some time at the bottom of the table. Having 4th as their absolute bottom means that whatever happens it seems like Gia has once again managed to get a team in the top half of the table.
Istanbul
What a difference a week makes! Istanbul was down in the dumps, lingering down in bottom and not looking to have any answers to the questions being asked of them. However a decisive tactical adjustment from manager @Afrhite has gotten the best out of his players. An incredible win over Stockholm means the only way for istanbul appears to be up. A median position of 45% of 4th is nothing to scoff at, take into account that 3rd and even 2nd are still in the cards and I think any one of the players or manager would have signed for that. Now I wonder how many seasons I would have to sim before @Bloodless got a goal.....
Port Royal
Now it is no secret that the fm gods have not been favorable to Port Royal, they are currently at the very bottom of the table. However I think this outcome should provide some hope for the Port Royal players and manager. They have the largest spread out of any of the teams, in the simulations they have gotten 8th, 7th, 6th, 5th, 4th AND 3rd which genuinely means anything can happen. Pair this with the fact they have the most human players with 9 and the fact that they have had one of the highest tpe earning rates so far. I think with some tactical tweaks and luck it is not out of the realm of possibilties for Port royal to still get 2nd or even 1st place this season! Granted if they keep earning like they have.
Sydney
Now I know I have been throwing a lot of banter @CamGoldenGun 's way this season but let it be clear, I want EVERY team to do well. Sydney has a great group of great players, they have just not been able to put everything together. The last match they played, even if they lost they did play better so I do think they are going the right direction. The spread currently has them falling between 5th and 8th. I think 1st and 2nd is out of the question at this point, however, with some good tactics, some good earning and a dose of luck I think a top 3/4 finish is not out of the question.
There are my predictions! Once again, anything can happen, no one is mathmatically out yet. For all the people who gotten a prediction they dont agree with.... WORK EXTRA HARD AND PROVE ME WRONG THEN >:)
PS
This is not scientific, but some of the sims I checked the top goalscorer, I think I checked in half of them (so 10) and in 1 of those 10 @Jeanious broke the academy goalscoring record:
![[Image: ySrStzC.jpeg]](https://i.imgur.com/ySrStzC.jpeg)
![[Image: c7f8aa70-fe07-4d3a-9a43-591d7ca448e5.png]](https://i.postimg.cc/0QJdTHDV/c7f8aa70-fe07-4d3a-9a43-591d7ca448e5.png)
