S26 Team Analysis and Tiers

[anjro]

As you may know, I came from ISFL.  One of the things that really helped me get a better understanding of the landscape of the ISFL was to plot each of the team’s players by their draft season, TPE, and position.  After plotting I would try to group them with their peers.  I am hoping that same exercise will help me get a better understanding of the SSL.  Coincidentally, I also did this activity after my first season in the ISFL.

I actually started this article as just for division 1 teams across both leagues.  I know what you’re thinking, why not just do majors, minors, or the whole league?  I wanted to do something that was relevant to my organization and it just so happens we’re in division 1 for both majors and minors.  Also, it is not as overwhelming for me to only look at a subset of the league, which is already 12 teams.  Turns out I really want that sweet sweet money so I ended up powering through to complete the whole league.

I’ll start first with the major league, look at the teams by division, and then their tiers.  I’ll finish by repeating the process with the minor league.


Majors

Division 1

Hollywood FC

Surprisingly, at least to me, one of the few bell curve distributions in division 1.  I thought this shape would be more common.  They share the most players in regression in division 1 with União São Paulo.  As evidenced by winning last season, their window is now. 

União São Paulo

Most of their players are clustered around draft season 17-20 with a TPE around 1500-2000.  They also have the most players around 2000 TPE across all of division 1.  Given where their players are clustered, they are currently in contention and may even be considered the favorites after coming in 2nd last season.

CF Catalunya

CF Catalunya has the second tightest clustering of players.  All their players are between 18-22 and 1350-1850 TPE.  They have the second most players below 1500 TPE in division 1 behind Liffeyside.  If their young core develops nicely, they could be a force in a couple seasons.

Reykjavik United

The most slanted distribution award goes to Reykjavik United.  It looks like the majority of their players are earning at the same rate.  They are entering their window as most of their players have not hit regression yet.

Liffeyside Celtic FC

Their distribution is similar to Hollywood FC except compared to Hollywood FC they have lower TPE and are younger.  As I understand, Liffeyside is one of the most recent expansion teams.  I believe it is an achievement to get to division 1.  Unfortunately for Liffeyside, they also have the most players under 1500 TPE in division 1.  They may need some help to stay in the division this season.

CD Tenochtitlan

We have reached the tightest grouping.  Most of their players are from classes 20 or 21 with one exception who is from class 22.  There is a similar clustering in terms of TPE as well as most are around 1500-1850 except for that class 22 player.  CD Tenochtitlan is probably a dark horse this season and looks to be entering their window.  If their core continues to develop, they should be in the hunt for seasons to come.

Division 2

Xelajú Cósmico FC

All but one of their players is between 1000-1500 TPE.  Most of their players have not hit regression yet.  Unfortunately, they are the only team in division 2 without any players over 1500 TPE.  It may be a tough season for them.

Shanghai Dragons FC

With their distribution, it is crazy that they even got relegated.  Shanghai have the only player in division 2 above 2000 TPE.  Not only that, but they also have the most players above 1500 TPE in the division.  The main outlier is their youngest player, which is still over 1000 TPE, the only team in the division to have all their players above 1000 TPE.  They are the favorites to win division 2 this season and get promoted.

CA Buenos Aires

CA Buenos Aires is probably right behind Shanghai Dragons FC.  Their distribution is more spread out than Shanghai, with what would probably be a lower trendline (lower TPE and older).

A.C. Romana

I kept flipping between A.C. Romana and Schwarzwälder FV and they look so similar, maybe they are siblings.  They both have most of their players (8) between 1000-1500 TPE.  A.C. Romana is maybe a touch younger.

Tokyo S.C.

To me, Tokyo S.C. looks like a slightly more spread out version of Xelajú Cósmico FC.  They have a player over 1500 TPE, but also 3 players below 1000 TPE.  The highs of Tokyo S.C. are not much higher than Xelajú Cósmico FC so I’d probably give Xelajú the edge as they have less lower TPE players.  It’s very close though.

Schwarzwälder FV

I kept flipping between Schwarzwälder FV and A.C. Romana and they look so similar, maybe they are siblings.  They both have most of their players (8) between 1000-1500 TPE.  Schwarzwälder FV is maybe a touch older.

Majors Tiers

The tiers are local to their league and division. Below I have listed the teams in different tiers and in no specific order within the tiers.  The gap in tiers is not very large, but to me there seemed to be a noticeable difference to warrant the groupings.  Also these tiers only reflect my perception of the strength of the roster, it does not consider how well the team utilizes their roster.

Division 1

Tier 1
União São Paulo
Hollywood FC
CD Tenochtitlan
Reykjavik United

Tier 2
Liffeyside Celtic FC
CF Catalunya

Division 2

Tier 1
Shanghai Dragons FC
CA Buenos Aires

Tier 2
A.C. Romana
Schwarzwälder FV

Tier 3
Tokyo S.C.
Xelajú Cósmico FC

Minors

Division 1

AS Paris

What stands out immediately is AS Paris is the only minor division 1 team with a player above 2000 TPE.  AS Paris also has the most players above 1000 TPE, which is also most of their players at 8.  The next closest is 5.  The trendline (not visible) is probably the steepest among all minor division 1 teams.  They seem to have a solid pipeline.  In the future, they may still be a competitive minor team despite losing players to the major team.  Probably the favorites this season.

North Shore United

North Shore United has the player with the 2nd highest TPE in minors division 1 at around 1700 TPE.  They also have by far the oldest roster in this group with all their higher TPE players also in regression. 

Krung Thep FC

This team is mostly distributed around 1000 TPE.  You could maybe even argue they are the most mid team in minors division 1.  They don’t have too many players aging out and not too many prospects from the most recent classes.  Their TPE is not too high and not too low.  If Goldilocks was rating this team, she would think it is just right.

F.C. Kaapstad

Their distribution is similar to North Shore United in that they have a decent number of aging higher TPE players.  However, unlike North Shore United, they have much more youth.  It is fitting that Krung Thep FC and F.C. Kaapstad are listed next to each other.  They are kind of like opposites.  Where F.C. Kaapstad has a young cluster and an old cluster, Krung Thep FC mostly has one cluster in the middle.

Rapid Magyar SC

They have the 2nd most players above 1000 TPE at 5.  However, they are also tied for the most rookies at 6.  They are kind of like F.C Kaapstad in that they have a ton of rookies, however Rapid Magyar SC’s other players are mostly younger.  If they don’t lose all their higher TPE players to their major team, I think they have one of the brightest futures in division 1. 

Inter London

I bet Inter London’s distribution probably looks like what Krung Thep FC’s distribution was several seasons ago.  Inter London is in a tough spot with by far the fewest players above 1000 TPE at 1.  They have a couple around 1000 TPE but that can be said about all the teams too.  It may be worthwhile to pray to the sim gods if you are an Inter London fan.

Division 2

AF Masques Sacrés

In this division, there are teams with a lot of rookies and AF Masques Sacrés is no exception.  They have an equal number of rookies compared to their other players.  That also means that they have the largest percentage of rookies making up their team.

Cairo City

The only team without a player above 1000 TPE in division 2.  That said, I wouldn’t put them that far behind any of the other teams.  Not many teams in this division have many players above 1000 TPE anyways.

CS Rova Mpanjaka

CS Rova Mpanjaka is a lot like Cairo City.  CS Rova is probably a season or two ahead of development compared to Cairo City. 

Montréal United

Montréal United has the honor of rostering the oldest player in division 2 who is from draft class 13.  Beyond that player and their highest TPE player, their roster looks a lot like AF Masques Sacrés.

Seoul MFC

One of the few teams with several players above 1000 TPE in division 2.  Seoul MFC
are probably the favorites as they have the most players above 1000 TPE and everyone in the division has a fair number of rookies and young players which is to be expected.

Athênai F.C.

Athênai F.C. seem to have a flatter trendline than the other teams.  However, they also have the second most players above 1000 TPE at 2.  They have two clusters, an older cluster and a younger cluster.

Minors Tiers

Again, tiers are localized to their division and teams are not ordered within the tiers. 

Division 1

Tier 1
AS Paris

Tier 2
North Shore United
Rapid Magyar SC
Krung Thep FC
F.C. Kaapstad

Tier 3
Inter London

Division 2

Tier 1
Seoul MFC

Tier 2
Athênai F.C.
Montréal United
CS Rova Mpanjaka
AF Masques Sacrés

Tier 3
Cairo City

Closing

If you made it this far, that is amazing.  Unfortunately, I don’t have a prize for you.  While I did try to predict where teams are in their lifecycle to some extent.  It is a bit challenging due to how players move within their organization here.  In SSL it seems like players can go back and forth depending on the needs of the organization, whereas in ISFL they typically go from DSFL to ISFL.  Also, as I was going through the exercise, it became apparent that it was a lot easier to discuss the teams at the top and bottom.  A lot of the teams in the middle seem very similar, which is good for league parity but made it tough to write about.  I did consider combining the tier lists – as in an organization tier list, just to see a broader picture since they share players.  However, I felt like this view was the most relevant for this season.

Does the analysis sound about right?  Do you agree with the tiers?  Did I miss anything?