Forum Clock: 2024-11-21 14:10 PST
 


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Statistically Powered Draft Prediction
#1
Welcome to my statistically powered draft prediction! The order of these picks is determined solely by player ability in their best positions. Let me explain: using the FM Player Scoring website by Squirrel Plays, we can generate “ratings” for each player. These ratings are calculated by weighting each player’s attributes according to the specific needs of their positions. For instance, in a forward's role, pace is heavily weighted, while tackling is completely disregarded. To create an accurate ranking, we took each player’s highest rating into account. This means a player’s best position might not be the one they typically play; for example, a goalkeeper with exceptional dribbling and finishing could actually excel as a forward. This results in some funny situations as you’ll see later.

Here are a few quick notes: I used the post-matchday 1 file, so any players who created afterward are not included. Additionally, any upgrades to players that occurred after matchday 1 have not been taken into account. Finally, some of the commentary might be a bit outdated as they were written before matchday 2.

Key: Potential Draft Position - Player Name - Player Position - Player's best role according to the calculator (Score in said role)

#1 - Elijah Cohen  - CAM - Best Role: Ball Winning Midfielder (13.1) 
The best player in the SSL academy (as of matchday 1) is Elijah Cohen. Despite being an attacking midfielder, his best role is as a Ball Winning Midfielder driven by his 10 tackling and insanely high 20 work rate. Cohen can dominate the midfield without breaking a sweat, yet his matchday 1 rating against Sydney was only 6.1 (lowest on Victoria Falls). However, his potential to impact games is undeniable, and he's sure to bounce back stronger in upcoming fixtures.

#2 - Julian Rubio - ST - Best Role: Winger (13.0) 
I promise I didn’t rig the scoring system, if I did Rubio would’ve been first, but the second-best player in the SSL is Stockholm’s Julian Rubio. His world-beating pace and technical ability make him a constant threat in the front third capable of scoring goals at will. He scored in his first match and if he keeps up this form, Rubio will be one of the players to watch this season. 

#3 - Aleksandr Skovgaard - CM - Best Role: Attacking Central Midfielder (12.5) 
The third-best player in the academy is Aleksandr Skovgaard, and he's the first whose "best role" aligns perfectly with his actual position. Skovgaard is the epitome of the ideal central midfielder, using his 13 passing, 13 decisions, and 13 vision to control the tempo of the game. He made an immediate impact, securing an assist and earning Player of the Match honors in the season opener.

#4 - Dina Skovgaard - RB - Best Role: Full Back (12.5) 
Tied with Aleksandr at a score of 12.5, Dina Skovgaard is the first defender to make the list. Her best role also aligns perfectly with her position, showcasing excellent defensive skills and the ability to support the attack. With 3 key passes and a rating of 7.4 in the season opener, Skovgaard is already proving to be a vital asset to Stockholm’s success this season.

#5 - Ben Nelson - DM - Best Role: Winger (12.4) 
Nelson's 12.4 score as a winger is extremely interesting given his positioning as a defensive midfielder, but looking at his physicals (16 pace and 17 acceleration) it actually makes some sense. His explosive speed and quick bursts allow him to transition rapidly from defense to attack, making him a versatile threat on the field. If utilized effectively, Nelson could become a game-changing player, as demonstrated by his impressive performance last week, finishing with a 7.1 rating despite the loss.

#6 - Benny Blanco - LB - Best Role: Winger (12.4) 
Matching his teammate’s score, Blanco's 12.4 as a Winger is less surprising given his position as an attacking left back. His crossing and dribbling ability make him a constant threat down the flank, balls into the box and creating opportunities for his teammates. Despite the team’s loss, Blanco earned a 7.2 rating in the first match, a rating even higher than his teammate Nelson.

#7 - George Shaheen - CB - Best Role: Center Back (12.3) 
The first non-Stockholm or Victoria Falls player, Shaheen is the first pure defender selected. With his strong pace (15) and positioning (15), making runs past the defenders is nearly impossible. His ability to shut down opposition attacks makes him a crucial player for his team, setting a high standard for defensive performance in the academy.

#8 - João Peixoto - CM - Best Role: Attacking Central Midfielder (12.3)
No… this can’t be true, my eyes must be deceiving me. Zeagle made a good player???? As much as I hate to admit it, Peixoto's 12.3 score is justified by his ability to do a little bit of everything. He can pass, he can dribble, and he can even score the occasional goal. Peixoto has the skills to be a game-changing player, especially if he can consistently deliver passes to his star striker Julian Rubio.

#9 - Florian Gaisberg - DM - Best Role: Center Back (12.3) Gaisberg’s score as a center-back highlights just how dominant he is as a defensive midfielder. His impressive rating reflects not only his strong tackling but also his ability to dictate the tempo from the back. Gaisberg's defensive prowess makes him a crucial player for Atlético, as demonstrated by his 7.0 rating, even in a losing effort.

#10 - Thomas Hohenhahn - ST - Best Role: Target Forward (12.2) 
Finally, we have our first Syndey City player, and I can’t say I’m surprised by who it is. Another 7'6" giant, Hohenhahn's size and unmatchable aerial ability can create havoc for opposing defenses. Hohenhahn is sure to be a key player for Sydney City this season, capitalizing on opportunities to score and disrupting the opponent's game plan.

#11 - Caspian Skovgaard - DM - Best Role: Center Back (12.1) 
Our third Skovgaard in the draft, Caspian offers a strong presence as a defensive midfielder. His ability to break up plays and distribute the ball effectively makes him a vital link between Stockholm’s defense and attack. With his excellent positioning and tackling, Caspian can disrupt and provide stability for his team throughout the season.

#12 - Charlie Chambers - CB - Best Role: Center Back (12.1)
Chambers (loved the podcast with Canadice) has all the tools a defender needs to succeed. While not being a master at any single aspect, he possesses a well-rounded skill set that includes solid physicals, good positioning, and effective decision-making on the pitch. His ability as a ball-playing defender allows him to take the ball out of defense and contribute to the build-up play, making him a valuable asset to Atlético.

#13 - Alex Calderon - CB - Best Role: Center Back (12.1)
Similar to Chambers, Calderon offers flexibility between defense and defensive midfield, also boasting a score of 12.1. His mental ability allows him to anticipate and react to the opposition, enabling him to completely shut down their attacks. This ability makes him an invaluable asset to his team, as he can disrupt the flow of play and initiate counterattacks with his precise distribution.

#14 - Ron Wince - CDM - Best Role: Deep Lying Playmaker (12.0)
Wince is the first player drafted with a primary playmaking role, scoring 12.0 as a Deep Lying Playmaker, and rightfully so. His passing ability is one of the best in the league with 15 decisions, 13 passing, 13 teamwork, and 13 technique. This is the type of player who can dominate the game by creating scoring opportunities for his teammates while also stabilizing the midfield.

#15 - Rigby Emerson - RW - Best Role: Raumdeuter (11.9)
Emerson is the first and only Raumdeuter in the entire draft. Emerson is an extremely unique player, with no single stat above 12 but with 18 different stats above 9. Emerson is the definition of a well-rounded player, and in the academy where TPE values are low, this type of player can be deadly. I hope that Sydney is unable to utilize Emerson because if they can the league is in trouble.

#16 - Daryl McManus - CM - Best Role: Supporting Central Midfielder(11.9)
If I had to describe McManus in one word, it would be "hard work." With a work rate of 15, he covers the entire field tirelessly. McManus’s ability to contribute by defensivly while also supporting attacks make him a vital player for his team. McManus’s ability to contribute in multiple areas of the pitch ensures that he is always involved in the game, making him a player that opponents must constantly account for.

#17 - Jordan Bamford - RB - Best Role: Full Back  (11.8)
Out of every full-back in the academy, Bamford's is by far the best defensively. His outstanding tackling ability, combined with elite positioning and awareness, allows him to nullify opposing wingers. Not only does he excel in one-on-one situations, but he also reads the game well, anticipating and squashing threats before they can develop.

#18 - Berit Skovgaard - CB - Best Role: Center Back (11.8)
Our fourth and final Skovgaard, Berit, brings a strong presence as a center back to the squad. While not the fastest player on the field, Berit possesses the acceleration and positioning to beat anyone to the ball. Despite standing at just 5'6", Skovgaard demonstrates impressive aerial ability, winning 73% of headers and effectively competing against taller opponents.

#19 - Zoe Clarke - LWB - Best Role: Full Back  (11.8)
Similar to Bamford, Zoe Clarke is a more defensively oriented wing-back. Her 11.8 score reflects her strong tackling, marking, and positioning, which allow her to neutralize threats down the wings. Clarke can support the attack without neglecting her defensive duties, making it crucial for Stockholm’s diamond formation.

#20 - Mr. Clean-Sheet - GK - Best Role: Goalkeeper (11.6)
Finally, we have our first goalkeeper off the board. Mr. Clean-Sheet is Stockholm’s defensive leader, standing at an impressive 6'8", his size and inherent ability to keep clean sheets make him a dominant force between the posts.

#21 - Chris Williams - RW - Best Role: Winger (11.5)
Williams excels as a right winger with a solid score of 11.5. His strengths lie in his dribbling, passing, and technique, making him a formidable threat on the wing. His ability to deliver accurate crosses and through balls to Hohenhahn makes him a vital piece in Sydney City’s offensive strategy.

#22 - Bartholomew Twinkletoes - GK - Best Role: Goalkeeper (11.4)
Our second goalkeeper off the board is Bartholomew Twinkletoes. He provides reliable shot-stopping and commands the area well, making him one of Atlético’s most dependable players, especially when the pressure is on.

#23 - Kel Varnson - LM - Best Role: AttackingCentral Midfielder (11.2)
Varnson excels as a left midfielder, his impressive mental attributes enhance his playmaking abilities. As a left-sided threat, Varnson's ability to deliver crosses and link-up play will be essential for his team’s success

#24 - Andres Pedrillo - CM - Best Role: Attacking Central Midfielder (11.2)
Pedrillo shines as an attacking central midfielder with a solid score of 11.2. His versatility allows him to contribute all across the midfield, this well-rounded skill set makes him capable of creating goal-scoring opportunities for Sydney City.

#25 - Benecio Aguilera III - GK - Best Role: Goalkeeper (11.1)
The third goalkeeper selected and the third Sydney player in a row, Aguilera boasts an 11.1 score that highlights his exceptional reflexes and positioning. His ability to command the penalty area ensures stability in goal for Sydney City.

#26 - Sam Volta - RM - Best Role: Enganche (11.0)
Another creative role! Volta is a well-rounded winger who excels in playmaking off of the right. He can deliver accurate passes and create scoring opportunities for his teammates, him a key contributor to his team's attack.

#27 - Rodiano Santori - RW - Best Role: Advanced Playmaker (10.9)
Santori is a creative force on the wing with a solid score of 10.9. He excels at orchestrating attacks and poses a consistent goal threat for Victoria Falls.

#28 - Leandro Dybala - CAM - Best Role: Mezzala (10.6)
I love Mezzalas; they’re one of the most enjoyable roles in the game. Dybala perfectly embodies this position with his creativity and flair, earning a score of 10.6. He has a talent for finding the perfect pass to set up his teammates for goals.

#29 - Sweeper The Keeper - GK - Best Role: Goalkeeper (9.9)
Another goalkeeper with a fitting name and a score of 9.9, Sweeper The Keeper is an eccentric shot-stopper known for his solid skills. His talent for distribution enables him to initiate counterattacks and maintain possession for his team.

#30 - Felix Baur - CB - Best Role: Target Forward (9.9)
This is the most intriguing player in the academy, a center back whose best position is target forward. How is this possible? It turns out Baur is an exceptional aerial player, boasting 20 jumping reach, 20 strength, and 10 heading. No one can beat him in an aerial duel. With a score of 10 in off-the-ball movement, Baur thrives in the final third as a target forward, perfectly positioned to capitalize on every cross.

Takeaways: 

The top picks (Cohen, Rubio, and the Skovgaards) have notably higher scores (13.1-12.5) than the rest of the draft, suggesting they're elite talents.
Some players with lower scores are selected based on positional scarcity or unique attributes (like the goalkeepers).
The last two picks (Sweeper The Keeper and Felix Baur) have significantly lower scores (9.9) than the rest, but their extremely unique builds justify their score.

Team Statistics:

Stockholm IK

Average Rating: 12.20
Highest Rated Player: Julian Rubio (13.0)
Lowest Rated Player: Mr Clean-Sheet (11.6)
Rating Range: 1.4

Stockholm IK emerges as the strongest team. They have the highest average rating and their lowest-rated player (11.6) is still higher than many other teams' averages, suggesting they have no weak links.

Sydney City

Average Rating: 11.60
Highest Rated Player: Thomas Hohenhahn (12.2)
Lowest Rated Player: Benecio Aguilera III (11.1)
Rating Range: 1.1

Sydney City takes the second spot with a well-balanced squad. While they don't have the highest individual ratings, their average across all players highlights their overall strength

Atlético Medellin

Average Rating: 11.78
Highest Rated Player: George Shaheen / Florian Gaisberg (12.3)
Lowest Rated Player: Leandro Dybala (10.6)
Rating Range: 1.7

Atlético ranks third due to their high average rating. However, their small squad size could be a disadvantage once players across the league start to improve.

Victoria Falls

Average Rating: 11.46
Highest Rated Player: Elijah Cohen (13.1)
Lowest Rated Player: Sweeper The Keeper / Felix Baur (9.9)
Rating Range: 3.2

Despite having the highest-rated player in the draft, Victoria Falls ranks fourth because of its low average rating and large rating range. Can their star power make up for their apparent lack of depth? I guess we'll find out over the next few matches.
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#2
Would be cool to see an updated version of this before the draft
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#3
If Mr. Clean Sheet goes before me I am retiring.
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