Which team is the most consistent? SHL Rookie Media

[Jackienape]

Good morning SSL,

Today I bring you an analysis of the different variance between some of our majors teams, and comparing a few really helpful graphs that I’ve obtained, that should help me identify exactly which team across each conference is the most consistent with their wins and losses. Whether they win big or lose quite a lot, this article hopes to come up with a general estimation about which team seems to persist the most, and what that curve does for them.

For starters, I’d like to really thank FuriousChicken for the graphs I was able to look at to compare things, and I really appreciate the help from everyone in the Sydney locker room in formulation this deep dive.

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The first thing I want to do is to get rid of a few outliers that exist, and take them out of the running. A few teams that do really well at having a very high variance of wins and losses are teams like Sao Paulo, starting at a respectable 1380, plummeting to a painful 863 (the lowest in this conference overall).



While this is certainly a pain point, I’m sure, Sao Paulo have also maintained some respectable comebacks, climbing from 863 all the way to 1747 before beginning to taper off at all! Definitely an exciting road to victory from the depths of what I can only imagine is rebuilding hell. Speaking from experience, I’ve been at that point in the ISFL, and there truly is nowhere else to go but up.

Another side of the coin to point out is North Shore United, another outlier in this list.They climb to the heights of 1400, before taking a steep nosedive straight back down to 1065. Other teams that seem to have the same trend, of a steep upward climb before an eventual downturn, are teams like Inter London, Cairo City, Tokyo SC, Schwarzwalder FV, and AC Romana.

One neat thing I pointed out to FuriousChicken on a voice chat, was how some teams seem to be almost exact opposites of each other.

One such outlier that I felt the need to draw attention was that of North Shore United, and AS Paris.


As you can see with the following graph, the individual bell curves of each team seem to form completely disparate when compared with each other. The perfection of the curve is interesting, as no other team seems to come anywhere close to the same gradient in a curve. Schwarzwalder FV definitely competes for that prise at points, but there are too many points that exist as peaks on the graph for me to feel comfortable adding it to this point.

With the data we’ve collected, not only on the relative ELO of each team, but also on the amplitude of each curve, we can determine that the team that seems to have the most consistent ELO rating across every season is one of these four:

- Tokyo SC
- CA Buenos Aires
- AC Romana
- Hollywood FC

These four are awesome comparisons to make, as they all do follow a pretty consistent trend, but some points along this curve cause one team or another to lose points based on a few key merits.

Firstly, while Tokyo SC seem to be incredibly, incredibly consistent from about S11 all the way to S21, they take a pretty steep dive down to 1003 ELO, from 1336. Still a respectable structure, but something that may indicate a rebuild happening now. With this, we can safely remove Tokyo SC as our final choice.

Secondly, Hollywood FC seems like a really good choice for this analysis, but unfortunately, or rather maybe fortunately, they seem to take off, going from 1337 ELO to 1778 ELO over the span of four seasons. Definitely impressive, but also lets me pretty safely write Hollywood FC off this list as well.

For the sake of this media, I have excluded all expansion teams from the runnings, purely based on a lack of consistent data. Otherwise, we might be able to say CS Rova Mpanjaka is the best choice for this, as their first season proved to be just as good as their second season overall.

It’s incredibly difficult to reasonably be able to include other long-standing expansion teams like Krung Thep, due not only tho their own variance in wins and losses, but also due to their 4-season tenure.

With that, your winners, and the team that maintains a passably consistent ELO is-

CA Buenos Aires!

With a short dive around S13, they nevertheless bring it back, maintaining a fairly consistent shift of rises and dips that make for a very steady rating throughout the history of the league.

Congratulations, Buenos Aires! You are neither good nor bad, you are perfectly mediocre.

Thanks!