2026-08-17, 06:56 AM - Word count:
In a time honored tradition of creating content, then creating content interacting with that content, I'm going to look over my mock draft from last week. As mentioned in said draft, I am working on a very incomplete set of data points and didn't expect to have too much success. And boy did I not.
1. Dakar & Alfama
Projected Pick: Thomas Thunder, LAM/LM/CM
Actual Pick: Max Velox, RWB/RM/RD
Max is a big jump from my predictions where I had him falling to the 11th slot. I guess I just accidentally duplicated the 1. I didn't get the position right here, either, so on the whole it's a pretty big miss for me. I had heard rumblings before my mock that Velox might go pretty high and I guess I should've listened.
2. Xelajú & Masques (via Casablanca & Guayaquil)
Projected Pick: Swiss Cheese, GK
Actual Pick: Captain MetalBeard, RD/RM/RWB
We're getting a little better here, as I had Metalbeard going fifth overall and he went second instead, good for a miss of only three spots. Once again a complete miss on the position, but surely I'll get better as the mock draft goes on? Right?
3. Reykjavik & North Shore (via Tokyo & Cairo)
4. Reykjavik & North Shore (via Xelajú & Masques)
Projected Picks:
Scott Newman, CAM/F/RAM
Butters Stotch, CM/CAM/RAM
Actual Picks:
Paulie Wag, CD/LWB/CDM
Thomas Thunder, LAM/LM/CM
Once again two misses! I had some good talks with Reykjavik and came to think it really likely I ended up there ... after I published my mock draft. So without the benefit of future sight, it's another bad one. If you squint then the positions for Thunder are right, since he's a midfielder and all. I mocked Thunder and I first and eighth and we went fourth and third so, again, we're slowly closing in on actually getting a pick right! If you consider that pick order didn't matter, you could even make the argument that the Thunder projection was only off by 2 picks. From 10 spots off to 3 to almost getting it right in the aggregate. We'll come back to the projected picks here later on as well, so stay tuned...
5. Casablanca & Guayaquil (via Schwarzwälder & Montreal)
Projected Pick: Captain MetalBeard, RD/RM/RWB
Actual Pick: Slim Towered, GK
I give myself a little grace here since the pick was traded. MetalBeard went earlier so that's obviously wrong, but I was only off by one pick for Slim Towered! Not bad by my very very low standards for success!
6. Buenos Aires & Athenai
Projected Pick: Slim Towered, GK
Actual Pick: Sirxo Masters, LWB/LAM/LM
So! My first absolute miss here (if you pretend first overall wasn't an absolute miss and just a bad miss, which please do). I didn't have Sirxo Masters in my first 17 picks at all, and here they are at sixth! Terrible job by me on that one. Also, and it pretty much goes without saying at this point, I didn't even get the position right. I at least almost nailed down Slim Towered. Maybe if he was on the board here I could've gotten it spot on.
7. Catalunya & Seoul
Projected Pick: Tex Star, CAM/ST/RAM
Actual Pick: Tyson Blaze, RM/LM/CDM
I accidentally skipped this pick in the original mock and maybe that would've been for the best. I put forth Tex Star to go seventh overall and he went 17th. So at least I had him in my picks, that's worth something right? The actual pick is another pokemon render which is cool. I picked midfielder correctly, but the actual pick was a defensive midfielder instead of an offensive one. Blaze also didn't show up anywhere in my mock at all so it's the first double miss (of many to come).
8. Rome & London
Projected Pick: Paulie Wag, CD/LWB/CDM
Actual Pick: Meisho Doto, CD/LD/RD
I basically got the position right! Yay! I projected a CD and they took a CD! I'm counting this as an absolute win. Also I was only two picks off (tenth to eighth) with where I thought Doto would be selected.
9. Reykjavik & North Shore (via Schwarzwälder & Montreal via Casablanca & Guayaquil via Shanghai & Magyar)
10. Reykjavik & North Shore (via Tenochtitlan & Krung)
Projected Picks:
Kazeno Kagenori, GK
Meisho Doto, CD/LD/RD
Actual Picks:
Butters Stotch, CM/CAM/RAM
Swiss Cheese, GK
Another trade here to really gum up the works. Even before the trade I predicted a GK to go in this pair of picks, so I got that right - just not the right player. I had Swiss Cheese going second overall and they fell to 10th so that's a pretty bad miss. On the other pick, however, I got it right! Just a half dozen picks early - Stotch goes to Reykjavik with the ninth overall pick instead of the fourth. And, as mentioned, Doto was almost right as well.
11. Liffeyside & Rova
Projected Pick: Max Velox, RWB/RM/RD
Actual Pick: Scott Newman, CAM/F/RAM
Horrible miss on both the projected and actual. Newman went eight picks later in the actual draft than my mock, and Velox went ten picks earlier. Different positions, too. Nightmare scenario. I can't even stand to think about this pick.
12. Dakar & Alfama (via Tokyo & Cairo via São Paulo & Paris)
Projected Pick: Gösta Holmberg, LAM/CAM/LM
Actual Pick: Wolf Hawkins, RD/RAM/RWB
Another double miss as Holmberg didn't go in the first seventeen picks at all and I didn't project Hawkins anywhere in my mock, not to mention the positions are off. Unless you wanted to be generous and give RAM basically being LAM. We're in the last couple picks now and the mistakes are starting to snowball so there's not gonna be a lot to celebrate from here to the end. But we'll always have picks nine and ten!
13. Catalunya & Seoul (via Schwarzwälder & Montreal via Reykjavik & North Shore)
Projected Pick: Yoshisaur Munchakoopa, LAM/ST/RAM
Actual Pick: Kazeno Kagenori, GK
Another traded pick, I originally had no idea what Reykjavik would even do with all their selections and just grabbed a name I liked. Yoshisaur didn't go in the first 17. Kagenori falls 4 picks from my mock.
14. Dakar & Alfama, somehow?
Projected Pick: Idris Nelson, CD/LWB/LD
Actual Pick: Daan Wouters, RAM/LAM/RD
First off: I have no idea how Dakar got this pick. Did somebody skip their pick or something? I don't remember seeing a Dakar trade. As for the pick itself, I may have forgotten that the two new expansion orgs would have to pick the Org Manager's players at some point in the first round (and not the second). So... not great. I'm not going to hold this one against me, though, since we're all human and make mistakes.
15. Casablanca & Guayaquil, somehow?
Projected Pick: Cal McRae, CM/CDM/CD
Actual Pick: Kit Krunk, LAM/ST/CAM
I thought Dakar had this pick so... not great. It's another double miss, but I'm not looking past pick 17 so I'm not sure exactly how bad of a miss it is. I still don't even know how this pick order happened. Whatever, let's move on cause we got something good up next.
16. Schwarzwälder & Montreal (via Casablanca & Guayaquil)
Projected Pick: Pick: Tadgh O'Hurley, LWB/LM/LD
Actual Pick: Tadgh O'Hurley, LWB/LM/LD
BANG! I'M THE GREATEST TO EVER DO IT! Paulie nails a pick! WOOO let's go!! Great prediction job by me, nobody has ever done it like I do it.
17. Hollywood & Cape Town
Projected Pick: Grant Transfer, LAM/CAM/LM
Actual Pick: Tex Star, CAM/ST/RAM
The position is basically right, so I count that as a win this late in the draft. As mentioned in the blurb for the earlier pick, though, I was way off for Tex's ranking.
Summary
Players can't be double counted (ie Max Velox is only one bad miss), but both the projected pick and actual pick will be considered otherwise.
Hits (player to right team or in right spot): 2.
Near Hits (one or two picks off): 2, or 3 if you include Thunder
Bad Misses (5+ picks off, or not included at all): 15, I think? There's so many it got hard to track. I included Butters Stotch in both the bad misses and Hits category.
So, given that there's (generously) 5 good prognostications and (generously) 14 bad ones, I think it might be time to put my analyst hat back in the closet and never bring it out again.
1. Dakar & Alfama
Projected Pick: Thomas Thunder, LAM/LM/CM
Actual Pick: Max Velox, RWB/RM/RD
Max is a big jump from my predictions where I had him falling to the 11th slot. I guess I just accidentally duplicated the 1. I didn't get the position right here, either, so on the whole it's a pretty big miss for me. I had heard rumblings before my mock that Velox might go pretty high and I guess I should've listened.
2. Xelajú & Masques (via Casablanca & Guayaquil)
Projected Pick: Swiss Cheese, GK
Actual Pick: Captain MetalBeard, RD/RM/RWB
We're getting a little better here, as I had Metalbeard going fifth overall and he went second instead, good for a miss of only three spots. Once again a complete miss on the position, but surely I'll get better as the mock draft goes on? Right?
3. Reykjavik & North Shore (via Tokyo & Cairo)
4. Reykjavik & North Shore (via Xelajú & Masques)
Projected Picks:
Scott Newman, CAM/F/RAM
Butters Stotch, CM/CAM/RAM
Actual Picks:
Paulie Wag, CD/LWB/CDM
Thomas Thunder, LAM/LM/CM
Once again two misses! I had some good talks with Reykjavik and came to think it really likely I ended up there ... after I published my mock draft. So without the benefit of future sight, it's another bad one. If you squint then the positions for Thunder are right, since he's a midfielder and all. I mocked Thunder and I first and eighth and we went fourth and third so, again, we're slowly closing in on actually getting a pick right! If you consider that pick order didn't matter, you could even make the argument that the Thunder projection was only off by 2 picks. From 10 spots off to 3 to almost getting it right in the aggregate. We'll come back to the projected picks here later on as well, so stay tuned...
5. Casablanca & Guayaquil (via Schwarzwälder & Montreal)
Projected Pick: Captain MetalBeard, RD/RM/RWB
Actual Pick: Slim Towered, GK
I give myself a little grace here since the pick was traded. MetalBeard went earlier so that's obviously wrong, but I was only off by one pick for Slim Towered! Not bad by my very very low standards for success!
6. Buenos Aires & Athenai
Projected Pick: Slim Towered, GK
Actual Pick: Sirxo Masters, LWB/LAM/LM
So! My first absolute miss here (if you pretend first overall wasn't an absolute miss and just a bad miss, which please do). I didn't have Sirxo Masters in my first 17 picks at all, and here they are at sixth! Terrible job by me on that one. Also, and it pretty much goes without saying at this point, I didn't even get the position right. I at least almost nailed down Slim Towered. Maybe if he was on the board here I could've gotten it spot on.
7. Catalunya & Seoul
Projected Pick: Tex Star, CAM/ST/RAM
Actual Pick: Tyson Blaze, RM/LM/CDM
I accidentally skipped this pick in the original mock and maybe that would've been for the best. I put forth Tex Star to go seventh overall and he went 17th. So at least I had him in my picks, that's worth something right? The actual pick is another pokemon render which is cool. I picked midfielder correctly, but the actual pick was a defensive midfielder instead of an offensive one. Blaze also didn't show up anywhere in my mock at all so it's the first double miss (of many to come).
8. Rome & London
Projected Pick: Paulie Wag, CD/LWB/CDM
Actual Pick: Meisho Doto, CD/LD/RD
I basically got the position right! Yay! I projected a CD and they took a CD! I'm counting this as an absolute win. Also I was only two picks off (tenth to eighth) with where I thought Doto would be selected.
9. Reykjavik & North Shore (via Schwarzwälder & Montreal via Casablanca & Guayaquil via Shanghai & Magyar)
10. Reykjavik & North Shore (via Tenochtitlan & Krung)
Projected Picks:
Kazeno Kagenori, GK
Meisho Doto, CD/LD/RD
Actual Picks:
Butters Stotch, CM/CAM/RAM
Swiss Cheese, GK
Another trade here to really gum up the works. Even before the trade I predicted a GK to go in this pair of picks, so I got that right - just not the right player. I had Swiss Cheese going second overall and they fell to 10th so that's a pretty bad miss. On the other pick, however, I got it right! Just a half dozen picks early - Stotch goes to Reykjavik with the ninth overall pick instead of the fourth. And, as mentioned, Doto was almost right as well.
11. Liffeyside & Rova
Projected Pick: Max Velox, RWB/RM/RD
Actual Pick: Scott Newman, CAM/F/RAM
Horrible miss on both the projected and actual. Newman went eight picks later in the actual draft than my mock, and Velox went ten picks earlier. Different positions, too. Nightmare scenario. I can't even stand to think about this pick.
12. Dakar & Alfama (via Tokyo & Cairo via São Paulo & Paris)
Projected Pick: Gösta Holmberg, LAM/CAM/LM
Actual Pick: Wolf Hawkins, RD/RAM/RWB
Another double miss as Holmberg didn't go in the first seventeen picks at all and I didn't project Hawkins anywhere in my mock, not to mention the positions are off. Unless you wanted to be generous and give RAM basically being LAM. We're in the last couple picks now and the mistakes are starting to snowball so there's not gonna be a lot to celebrate from here to the end. But we'll always have picks nine and ten!
13. Catalunya & Seoul (via Schwarzwälder & Montreal via Reykjavik & North Shore)
Projected Pick: Yoshisaur Munchakoopa, LAM/ST/RAM
Actual Pick: Kazeno Kagenori, GK
Another traded pick, I originally had no idea what Reykjavik would even do with all their selections and just grabbed a name I liked. Yoshisaur didn't go in the first 17. Kagenori falls 4 picks from my mock.
14. Dakar & Alfama, somehow?
Projected Pick: Idris Nelson, CD/LWB/LD
Actual Pick: Daan Wouters, RAM/LAM/RD
First off: I have no idea how Dakar got this pick. Did somebody skip their pick or something? I don't remember seeing a Dakar trade. As for the pick itself, I may have forgotten that the two new expansion orgs would have to pick the Org Manager's players at some point in the first round (and not the second). So... not great. I'm not going to hold this one against me, though, since we're all human and make mistakes.
15. Casablanca & Guayaquil, somehow?
Projected Pick: Cal McRae, CM/CDM/CD
Actual Pick: Kit Krunk, LAM/ST/CAM
I thought Dakar had this pick so... not great. It's another double miss, but I'm not looking past pick 17 so I'm not sure exactly how bad of a miss it is. I still don't even know how this pick order happened. Whatever, let's move on cause we got something good up next.
16. Schwarzwälder & Montreal (via Casablanca & Guayaquil)
Projected Pick: Pick: Tadgh O'Hurley, LWB/LM/LD
Actual Pick: Tadgh O'Hurley, LWB/LM/LD
BANG! I'M THE GREATEST TO EVER DO IT! Paulie nails a pick! WOOO let's go!! Great prediction job by me, nobody has ever done it like I do it.
17. Hollywood & Cape Town
Projected Pick: Grant Transfer, LAM/CAM/LM
Actual Pick: Tex Star, CAM/ST/RAM
The position is basically right, so I count that as a win this late in the draft. As mentioned in the blurb for the earlier pick, though, I was way off for Tex's ranking.
Summary
Players can't be double counted (ie Max Velox is only one bad miss), but both the projected pick and actual pick will be considered otherwise.
Hits (player to right team or in right spot): 2.
Near Hits (one or two picks off): 2, or 3 if you include Thunder
Bad Misses (5+ picks off, or not included at all): 15, I think? There's so many it got hard to track. I included Butters Stotch in both the bad misses and Hits category.
So, given that there's (generously) 5 good prognostications and (generously) 14 bad ones, I think it might be time to put my analyst hat back in the closet and never bring it out again.
![[Image: J5WULb5.jpeg]](https://i.imgur.com/J5WULb5.jpeg)
