SSL Luck

[Canadice]

Introduction

This series of articles will cover a recent addition to the SSL Index, player and team luck. Football Manager calculates something called expected goals which assesses the quality of a shot based on its placement on the pitch, the angle towards goal and the amount of people around the same area. The statistic can take on values between 0 and 1, where 0 indicates that the chance of a goal is essentially impossible and 1 indicates that the shot is definitely a goal.

Using this statistic alongside the actual number of goals that a player or team has produced from their chances, we can calculate something close to a measure of luck, i.e. is the player or team scoring on more chances than they are supposed to they are considered lucky. Mathematically, Offensive Luck is calculated by (Actual Goals For) - (Expected Goals For) while Defensive Luck is calculated in the inverse (Expected Goals Against) - (Actual Goals Against). The inverse is used for the defensive measurement as one can be considered lucky if you allow fewer goals than you expect to concede.

In order to be able to compare these measurements across divisions and seasons, the expected and actual goals have been transformed to a "per game" basis, dividing the total sum of each statistic by the number of games played by the player or team in that season.

Note that it is also customary to adjust the calculations for penalty kicks as they tend to inflate the expected and actual goals. This functionality has not yet been implemented in the index tool.

Luckiest Offensive Teams

Starting off this series I thought it be good to show which teams have been the luckiest throughout the SSL's first eight complete seasons. Data exists for S9 but as it is not yet complete it does not show the full picture.

Starting off at the fifth luckiest team we have Inter London in season 3. During their first three seasons of the league, Inter London showed an impressive form and finally winning the league in S3 two points ahead of second place. The team managed to score 2.368 goals per game compared to their expected 1.840 goals per game, giving them an Offensive Luck score of 0.529. This means that they scored more than half a goal a game more than they were expected to do!

The fourth luckiest team is once again Inter London in season 2. Season 2 saw them end up in third place behind teams such as Athênai and Hollywood but once again they outperformed their expected goals for by a margin of 0.674.

Coming up at third place is Hollywood FC in season 7. At this point in time Hollywood secured their third (second consecutive) league title with a luck of 0.690 goals per game. Now even with an expected goals per game at 2.257 they should have ended up at the top of the standings but scoring almost at a three goals per game pace helped to secure their seven point margin to second place Tokyo.

The second luckiest team in SSL history is Tokyo S.C. from the last season, season 8. They actually scored at more than 3 goals per game while expected to score at around 2.338 goals per game resulting in their luck margin reaching 0.799. Tokyo just barely missed out on the league by three points but saw success in the SSL Cup, winning their second cup trophy and the first since S1.

The luckiest team in the SSL actually happened in the first season with the league champions Cairo City expected to score 1.415 goals per game but managing to put 2.357 goals per game in the opposition net. This is a margin of 0.942 goals per game, almost an extra goal scored every game compared to their expectation.

[BUM®]

QUOTE (Canadice @ May 4 2023, 01:47 AM)

Introduction The luckiest team in the SSL actually happened in the first season with the league champions Cairo City expected to score 1.415 goals per game but managing to put 2.357 goals per game in the opposition net. This is a margin of 0.942 goals per game, almost an extra goal scored every game compared to their expectation.

Cairo is paying for that early luck now.

[Canadice]

Luckiest Defensive Teams

As the second instance in this series, I want to look at the luckiest defensive teams. As S9 has been completed there might now be more recent seasons appearing in this list. The same calculations and link as previous is the source of the information.

Top 5

The fifth most lucky team on the defensive end is Montréal United () who managed a 0.369 luck in season 9. In pure statistics, they were expected to concede about 1.895 goals per game but actually only conceded about 1.5 goals. A stable mid-table showing for the team in the season as a result.

In fourth we have Cairo City () making an appearance in this list as well. In season 5 they had a luck modifier of 0.437 so almost conceding half a goal fewer than expected. Cairo managed to barely hang on in Division 1 this season coming down to the final matchday and this defensive luck surely helped with that.

The third luckiest team is União São Paulo () with just over 0.5 goals per game fewer conceded than expected. This happened in season 6, their first season after being promoted to Division 1 which also saw them having a relatively high (0.2) offensive luck as well. They managed to hold off both Sydney and Accra for the 6th spot and have been staying put in Division 1 since then.

Inter London () gets the second spot from back in season 3 where they managed to win the league on an impressive 0.5 goals above expected while also scoring 0.5 goals above expected, as seen in the previous list.

At the top of the list we find the only team in the top five with a negative offensive luck combined with a positive defensive luck. Athênai F.C. in season 5 conceded 0.6 goals fewer than expected while also scoring 0.25 goals fewer than expected (-0.25 luck). This resulted in a stable 4th place finish in the table with a goal differential of 0.

[Canadice]

Unluckiest Offensive Teams

The previous two posts were focused on the teams that reached heights they were not expected to do but there is unfortunately another end of the rope as well, the unluckiest teams in the league. This week I'll be taking a look at the unluckiest offensive teams, the ones that peppers the opponent with quality chances but never seem to get the ball in the back of the net.

Top (or bottom) 5

Starting off the list we have Inter London () in season 5. Expected to score 0.795 goals per game which is well under the required value to actually win, they managed to produce even less. With a luck of -0.378, the actual goals produced was less than half a goal per game...

Fourth on the list we have (newly relocated) Adowa Accra FC () with a luck of -0.385 in season 9. The season was a bit of a set back for the team compared to season 8 but the inclusion on this list shows that it was not for the lack of trying.

The next two spots are actually taken up by the same team, who also happens to have another entry in lower in the top 10. Tokyo S.C. () has in season 6 and season 9 not had the luck on their side. Scoring almost half a goal per game fewer than expected is not the way to beat out Hollywood at the top of the standings. Maybe the luck will turn for them in season 10.

The unluckiest team in SSL history is another recent entry from season 8. Montréal United () had a luck of -0.700 that season missing out on promotion to D1 by just 6 points up to Inter London. Only scoring 17 goals in 14 league games compared to the closest opponents scoring 25 or more goals does not win games although pairing that with their absolute defensive dominance still made them end up in third.

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Unluckiest Defensive Teams

The final look at the teams will focus on the unluckiest defensive teams, the ones that conceded more goals than they were expected to do. Once again I will present the top (or bottom depending on how you view this) five teams from the first nine seasons of the league history.

Starting off at number 5 we have Cairo City from season 2. They let in more than 0.6 goals per game more than what they were expected to do in a season that also saw them score more than expected. The season did not go that well for the team, finishing 6th in a league consisting of 8 teams, just two points shy of the bottom position.

The fourth unluckiest team also conceded about 0.6 more goals per game than expected. Red Star Laos in season 9 finished 5th in Division 2 with the most goals conceded (40) in the entire league, only tied with Seoul in D1. The play of the team did not seem to warrant this many goals, as shown by the luck value so they should be able to bounce back in S10.

F.C. Kaapstad is our third team on the list conceding almost 0.7 goals per game more than expected. The fifth season of the league saw the first implementation of the tiered divisional structure and Kaapstad's first in their history. They ended up 3rd, only one point behind fellow expansion team União São Paulo, while conceding the second most goals in the division.

At 0.763 goals per game above expectation we have Seoul Mythic FC coming in at number 2. Season 6 saw their first season after being relegated and this season proved unlucky on both sides of the field. Managing to get 11 points in 10 games, they finished 5th in Division 2, with the fewest goals scored and second most goals conceded.

Finally at number 1, Red Star Laos makes their second appearance, this time from season 7. Their expansion season was rough conceding 58 goals in 14 league matches and a goal differential of -45. However the luck modifier shows that they were also very unlucky, conceding 0.9 goals per game more than they were expected to do.

[Canadice]

Player Luck

Having gone through all of the different team luck rankings in the past couple of weeks we are now starting off with players. The same tool that shows the team luck also calculates the individual player's expected goals for compared to their actual goals scored as well as the expected goals against for the team in games where the player has played against the actual goals against. There is a discrepancy regarding subs as the statistics doesn't indicate when in a game the xG or Goals actually happen, so the defensive luck might not be entirely accurate.

Offensive Luck

Starting off with the offensive luck we see a couple of S10 entries that I will skip for now due to the season just starting. Sorted by worst luck, the top 10 actually contains 7 players from S10, so it seems like this season has proved to be unlucky for a lot of players. Removing these players from the list the top five unluckiest players are:

5. Arnošt Hlemýžď @Citizen of Adraa: In season 6 Hlemýžď did not score a single goal in 7 appearances but had a total xG of 1.95 (or 0.244 goals per game). Playing as a right midfielder during most of the season Hlemýžď made 20 shots on goal with only 7 on target and unfortunately none of them managing to get past the keeper.

4. Here we have the league's official penalty misser, Helena Söderberg @[sköldpaddor] , in season 5. 16 appearances with 7.18 total xG resulted in only 3 goals where 2 of them came from penalties. In this total xG there are 5 attempted penalties meaning that the keeper came victorious from that one on one battle more times than Söderberg herself.

3. Another Tokyo player comes onto the list, but not for the lack of trying or actually scoring. Sky Ryze @Nhamlet in season 4 scored a solid 11 goals for Tokyo in 24 appearances, but was expected to score almost the double. The total xG was 19.57 and with 186 shots with 76 on target one would expect more than 11 of them to get by the keeper. Note that none of these are penalties...

2. Second on the list we have Antonio Conte @LSUFAN101 in season 6 playing for Sydney City. Another striker on a team filled with offensive power, Conte saw only one appearance for the team with 2 out of 3 shots on target but no goals.

1. A final Tokyo player makes their appearance on this list in Caleb Hayden @Caleb_H from season 7. In 14 games, Hayden shot the ball 22 times on target with only 3 goals to their name. The expected goals for the season was more than three times that at 9.12 so we can definitely say that Hayden (and Tokyo for that matter) is the unluckiest player in the SSL so far.