2025-08-03, 10:17 PM - Word count:
(This post was last modified: 2025-08-04, 09:33 AM by Degradation.)
What follow this introduction is a deep dive by a person very unfamiliar with the world of soccer. I played soccer as a youth and it was the only organized sport I played but really do you learn all the positions and strategies at that level? I'm talking summer house league team.
That being said I am going to attempt to compare two players at the top of the league in XG (expected number of goals from made shots based on the strength of chances). I wrote that definition for myself. I present to you Eric Belmont and Julian Rubio. The reason I'm comparing these two players is that even though they are playing almost the same position (M/AM) and have a such a tiny difference of 0.05 XG, Belmont has 26 Goals and 6 Assists to Rubio's 21 and 1. Let's use our uneducated skills to find out why by breaking out 4 differences in their game stats.
Passes/Headers
In a couple of these categories we'll see the difference of their position and the responsibilities therein. The first of such is by comparing passes and header. Now I'll be honest I don't completely understand what "Headers" is classified in this stat whether it means headers as a shot or a pass or any header at all. I'm choosing to believe it's the latter and will include it in the passing conversation. Comparing them becomes difficult as a midfielder does have more passing responsibility than an attacker and therefore Belmont leads a lot of passing metrics. However it appears that Rubio has the better percentage associated with passing (85.8%) despite passing less in general. A recurring theme I've found, and you'll find later, is that Eric has a lot more volume (Pass Attempts 412 vs 338) in general categories that I've explored and achieving less accurate results. The Assists are coming however from his Key Passes (26 vs 17) meaning he makes way more passes and with less success but much more impactful ones. Therefore - more apples. Headers come into the equation thinking about their positioning on the field. As far as I'm aware headers happen most often near the nets and in the tight spaces which given they have almost equal amount of attempts means very little but Belmont has the much higher success rate (Headers 90 vs 43 and 58.06% vs 29.45%) so his moves are a lot more dangerous and achieving success in the attacking zone. Therefore - more Gapples. What's another term for Goals? Whatever.
Defense
I won't go too deep into the defense except to accentuate the differences in their roles. Rubio has had much more success pressing (28.97% vs 21.25%) and creating dangerous chances through his defense, opposite to Belmont's passes and tight space game getting the ball moving up field. Again though Eric has the higher amount of attempts (160 vs 145) showing again a volume based pressure type game which leads to poor percentages but more opportunities. Do you see the theme yet? Throw on top that Belmont has 4 shots blocked from a midfield position while Rubio has 0, which is completely understandable, those are again more opportunities to turn the ball around and send up the attack.
Fouls
This too won't be complicated to explain as I can simply state that in one less game Rubio has a lot more fouls (48 vs 33) and almost double the offsides (45 vs 24). You could attribute that to positions and knowing that an attacker is much more prone to offsides and being aggressive however I see this actually as lost opportunities. Belmont had more opportunity to place a pass or a shot on net and less likely to be stopped before even getting the chance. More chances = more Gapples. I like it now. I'm turning it into my term for "Points" (Goals + Assist).
Overperformance
This is the final factor and is much harder to predict or present. Per the game stats Julian Rubio has a 0.24 XG Overperformance meaning that he has capitalized on the chances he should and nothing has affected the rate at which he's scored. Eric Belmont on the other hand has had a whopping 5.29 XGO! That's good for 2nd in the league. How do we explain this overperformance? Without watching every game I would describe it as a couple possible things. A) He's been extremely lucky and that luck might run out at some point. B) Due to the amount of volume with his passes, headers, and chances is that a gameplan that creates chaos and causes a mixture of opportunities where he's taken advantage.
Conclusion
I think it's part B and that it is in fact sustainable but also that it's a positional and team role that provides Eric Belmont with the ability to lead the league in goals instead of Julian Rubio who is near the top but just not getting the luck or the extra chances and instead being entrusted to press the ball carrier to create opportunities. Will anyone else be in the running as the season nears its end?
That being said I am going to attempt to compare two players at the top of the league in XG (expected number of goals from made shots based on the strength of chances). I wrote that definition for myself. I present to you Eric Belmont and Julian Rubio. The reason I'm comparing these two players is that even though they are playing almost the same position (M/AM) and have a such a tiny difference of 0.05 XG, Belmont has 26 Goals and 6 Assists to Rubio's 21 and 1. Let's use our uneducated skills to find out why by breaking out 4 differences in their game stats.
Passes/Headers
In a couple of these categories we'll see the difference of their position and the responsibilities therein. The first of such is by comparing passes and header. Now I'll be honest I don't completely understand what "Headers" is classified in this stat whether it means headers as a shot or a pass or any header at all. I'm choosing to believe it's the latter and will include it in the passing conversation. Comparing them becomes difficult as a midfielder does have more passing responsibility than an attacker and therefore Belmont leads a lot of passing metrics. However it appears that Rubio has the better percentage associated with passing (85.8%) despite passing less in general. A recurring theme I've found, and you'll find later, is that Eric has a lot more volume (Pass Attempts 412 vs 338) in general categories that I've explored and achieving less accurate results. The Assists are coming however from his Key Passes (26 vs 17) meaning he makes way more passes and with less success but much more impactful ones. Therefore - more apples. Headers come into the equation thinking about their positioning on the field. As far as I'm aware headers happen most often near the nets and in the tight spaces which given they have almost equal amount of attempts means very little but Belmont has the much higher success rate (Headers 90 vs 43 and 58.06% vs 29.45%) so his moves are a lot more dangerous and achieving success in the attacking zone. Therefore - more Gapples. What's another term for Goals? Whatever.
Defense
I won't go too deep into the defense except to accentuate the differences in their roles. Rubio has had much more success pressing (28.97% vs 21.25%) and creating dangerous chances through his defense, opposite to Belmont's passes and tight space game getting the ball moving up field. Again though Eric has the higher amount of attempts (160 vs 145) showing again a volume based pressure type game which leads to poor percentages but more opportunities. Do you see the theme yet? Throw on top that Belmont has 4 shots blocked from a midfield position while Rubio has 0, which is completely understandable, those are again more opportunities to turn the ball around and send up the attack.
Fouls
This too won't be complicated to explain as I can simply state that in one less game Rubio has a lot more fouls (48 vs 33) and almost double the offsides (45 vs 24). You could attribute that to positions and knowing that an attacker is much more prone to offsides and being aggressive however I see this actually as lost opportunities. Belmont had more opportunity to place a pass or a shot on net and less likely to be stopped before even getting the chance. More chances = more Gapples. I like it now. I'm turning it into my term for "Points" (Goals + Assist).
Overperformance
This is the final factor and is much harder to predict or present. Per the game stats Julian Rubio has a 0.24 XG Overperformance meaning that he has capitalized on the chances he should and nothing has affected the rate at which he's scored. Eric Belmont on the other hand has had a whopping 5.29 XGO! That's good for 2nd in the league. How do we explain this overperformance? Without watching every game I would describe it as a couple possible things. A) He's been extremely lucky and that luck might run out at some point. B) Due to the amount of volume with his passes, headers, and chances is that a gameplan that creates chaos and causes a mixture of opportunities where he's taken advantage.
Conclusion
I think it's part B and that it is in fact sustainable but also that it's a positional and team role that provides Eric Belmont with the ability to lead the league in goals instead of Julian Rubio who is near the top but just not getting the luck or the extra chances and instead being entrusted to press the ball carrier to create opportunities. Will anyone else be in the running as the season nears its end?
