The Path To Victory - Analysing the Academy Standings

[GHamss]

As we head into the final round of the S20 academy, I thought it would be fun to look at the various scenarios in which a Champion of our league would be crowned. Originally, I wrote this thinking there were 14 match days but since then, I’ve learned there are 15. Which, in the end, is a good thing as each team plays each other 5 times throughout the season. Trying to figure out the outcomes with 3 games left was too much. So I have waited until after Match Day 13 to provide some scenarios.

During today’s match (match day 13) we saw Atletico beat Victoria Falls 5-3 and Stockholm beat Sydney 4-1. That puts the standings at:


Standings


Heading into the final two matches, Stockholm is at the top with 21 points and leading in goal differential. Atletico is tied in points but losing on the goal differential tiebreaker. In third is Sydney who are two points behind at 19 and in last Victoria. With a maximum of 6 points left up for grabs, Victoria has clinched fourth place in the Academy.

In the first of the final two match days remaining we see Atletico take on Sydney and Victoria take on Stockholm. With Victoria already eliminated from championship contention, they will be doing their best to play spoiler. A win or a draw against Stockholm in their match day 14 match won’t knock Stockholm out but it will certainly hurt. An Athletico win against Sydney will knock Sydney out and a draw will knock Sydney out if Stockholm win against Victoria.

In Summary for match day 14:

• No one will clinch the title on match day 14.
  
• Sydney can be eliminated from winning the championship if they lose against Atletico OR Sydney and Athletic draw and Stockholm beats Victoria
  

Match day 15 sees Sydney take on Victoria while Atletico takes on Stockholm. The Victoria vs Sydney match up may be irrelevant if Sydney gets eliminated after match day 14 (see above summary). There is a strong possibility that the league champion will be determined by the Atletico vs Stockholm game. However, there are many scenarios that can play out. See below.

As there is a potential for a tie, I wanted to bring up the tie breaker rules.

Tiebreakers are in order:

1. Goal differential
   
2. Head to head results
   
3. Goals scored
   
4. Random draw
   

Let’s hope it doesn’t go to a random draw. With two games remaining, Stockholm is leading the goal differential with +6, Atletico is in second with +4, Sydney is in third with +2 and Victoria is last with -12. In the event that goal differential is tied, we will need to assess the head to head match ups. Stockholm has a H2H record of 2-1-1 against Atletico. If Atletico wins their matchup on day 15 and they are tied in points and goals, the H2H will also be tied. At that point it will go to goals scored. Currently Atletico is at 44 goals scored while Stockholm is at 36. Currently, one scenario is possible in which Sydney ties Stockholm at 25 points. Stockholm is currently leading the goal differential by 4 goals. If that gap is tied then it would go to head to head. The two teams are tied in head to head so it would go to goals for. Stockholm is currently at 36 goals for while Sydney is at 35. Although still very unlikely, in the event this one goal difference is made up, the tie would be broken by a random draw.

For interest's sake, here are the H2H records for each team.



Routes to Victory (organized by winning day 14, then drawing day 14, then losing day 14):
Atletico:

1. Win both games - no tiebreakers needed.
   
2. Beat Sydney in match day 14 and draw Stockholm in match daw 15. If Stockholm beats Victoria on day 14, this would leave the two teams tied atop the standings with 25 points.  Atletico would need to make up the 2 goals in goal differential they are behind Stockholm in. The two teams would tie on the second breaker of head to head. Atletico would win on the third tiebreaker, goals for, assuming there is no crazy score games remaining. Atletico has 44 goals for and Stockholm has 36.
   
3. Beat Sydney in match day 14 and lose to Stockholm in match daw 15. Need Stockholm to lose on day 14 and need to gain 2+ goals for goal differential to beat Stockholm on a tiebreaker.
   
4. A draw to Sydney on day 14 followed by a win against Stockholm would mean Atletico wins the championship.
   
5. A draw to Sydney on day 14 followed by a draw against Stockholm would mean Atletico wins if Stockholm loses to Victoria on day 14 and Sydney loses to Victoria on day 15.
   
6. A loss to Sydney on day 14 followed by a win against Stockholm would mean Atletico needs Victoria to beat or draw Sydney on day 15.
   

Stockholm:

1. Win both games - no tiebreakers needed.
   
2. Beat Victoria in match day 14 and draw Atletico in match daw 15. If Atletico beats Sydney on day 14, this would leave the two teams tied atop the standings with 25 points.  Stockholm would need to maintain the better goal differential compared to Atletico.
   
3. Beat Victoria in match day 14 and lose to Atletico in match daw 15. Need Atletico to lose on day 14 and maintain the 2+ goals for goal differential to beat Atletico on a tiebreaker.
   
4. A draw to Victoria on day 14 followed by a win against Atletico would mean Stockholm wins the championship or ties Sydney. Currently Stockholm is leading the GD tie breaker by +4 against Sydney.
   
5. A draw on day 14 followed by a draw on day 15 would mean Stockholm wins the championship if Atletico and Sydney draw on day 14 and Stockholm maintains the better goal differential.
   
6. A loss to Victoria on day 14 followed  by a win against Atletico would mean Stockholm needs Sydney to beat or draw Atletico on day 14.
   

Sydney:

1. Win both games and Stockholm loses one of their two remaining games
   
2. Win both their games and have Atletico draw against Stockholm. This would have Sydney tie Stockholm at 25 points. Sydney would need to make up the -4 goal differential to tie Stockholm. They are tied in head to head. Stockholm is leading the goals for by 1 goal.
   
3. A draw against Atletico and Stockholm losing to Victoria on day 14 plus Atletico and Stockholm drawin on day 15. This would lead to a 3 way tie in first. Sydney would need to beat Victoria by 4+ goals to win the championship on the goal differential tie breaker.
   

Victoria:

1. GGs
   

It wouldn’t surprise me if I missed a few outcomes but I hope I got them all covered. Still (almost) anyone’s game. Sydney can do it but needs help. Atletico and Stockholm both hold their fate in their own hands. It is great to see so many scenarios that lead to different winners. Keeps it exciting right up until the end!

[Beavie]

Well, our season for Victoria was fun in everything but the actual on pitch effort (Though I guess a player of the game for Allie was a nice lil' surprise). But it is interesting to see how the point breakdown is like. As someone who's only recently trying to get into Soccer, I've been wondering about the point breakdown and how it works. Given I'm very used to the likes of Hockey and baseball for my sporting diet, seeing the 3 point system in action and how late in a season, there are multiple routes to clinch actually makes it more exciting, but also a massive... MASSIVE headache in regards to putting this article together.

Match 14 100% is a must win for not just the Kangaroos, but I think Athletico's in a spot where it is "must win" in how it feels. As much as I'd love for us Eagles to be able to win (and we do have a few really solid earners this class) we just have not mixed well tactically and the Swedes are in a spot where a win is statistically probable.  Eliminating Sydney by beating them brings it to a clear path to victory and will make that match "must watch" for the s21 class.

But be careful around the Eagles, I hear their Right winger is... Fire (type). Great job on the write-up! Having a Pokemon Pic base instantly raises your article quality. :)