2025-09-21, 08:42 PM - Word count:
We are halfway through the academy season and it feels like home advantage might be the most decisive factor in academy matchday performance so far. With 7 games played some teams have played more home games than others and some teams have been more successful away than others. We are going to look through the academy teams home and away form and try to make some conclusions on how the rest of the season will play out. g/90 will stand for goals per 90 and c/90 will stand for goals conceded per 90.
Adowa Accra's record is 3-3-1.
-At home they are 3-1-0, 3.25 g/90, 1 c/90.
-On the road they are 0-2-1, 1.67 g/90, 2.33 c/90.
Atletico Medellin's record is 4-0-3.
-At home they are 3-0-0, 3 g/90, 1 c/90.
-On the road they are 1-0-3, 2 g/90, 3.75 c/90.
Istanbul F.K.'s record is 4-0-3.
-At home they are 4-0-0, 4.25 g/90, 0.75 c/90.
-On the road they are 0-0-3, 0.33 g/90, 4 c/90.
Port Royal F.C.'s record is 4-0-3.
-At home they are 3-0-0, 6.33 g/90, 1.33 c/90.
-On the road they are 1-0-3, 1.25 g/90 , 2.5 c/90.
PS Jakarta's record is 2-2-3.
-At home they are 2-1-0, 2 g/90, 0.33 c/90.
-On the road they are 0-1-3, 0.75 g/90 2.5 c/90.
Stockholm IK's record is 2-2-3.
-At home they are 2-1-1, 2.25 g/90, 1.75 c/90.
-On the road they are 0-1-2, 0.33 g/90, 3 c/90.
Sydney City's record is 2-1-4.
-At home they are 2-1-0 , 3 g/90, 0.33 c/90.
-On the road they are 0-0-4, 1.75 g/90, 5.5 c/90.
Victoria Falls' record is 2-2-3.
-At home they are 2-1-1, 3.25 g/90, 2.5 c/90.
-On the road they are 0-1-2, 1 g/90, 3.67 c/90.
On average home teams conceded 1.18 goals per 90. Away teams conceded 3.43 goals per 90. Every single team has a positive goal differential at home and a negative goal differential while away. Using an extremely simplistic and overfit model based on this too small to be normalized sample I predict that home teams will win about 82% of the time, draw about 12% of the time and lose about 6% of the time. Obviously not all teams are of the same strength but teams are already split into 2 rough tiers based on the table, those on 12 points and those on 7/8. I believe the biggest remaining factor is the amount of home games left. I would expect the 4 teams with 4 home games left to add around 11.14 points and the 4 teams with 3 home games left to add about 8.94 points.
Lets see how that looks with the disclaimer that these predictions will be wrong. Due to me not quite understanding the best way to fit a continuous model into a discrete event like a soccer game, I think I might be understating the possibility of a draw. The actual record of home academy teams(21-5-2) through 7 matchdays does fall within a reasonable variance though.
Port Royal F.C.- 23.14 pts
Atletico Medellin - 23.14 pts
Adowa Accra - 20.94 pts
Istanbul F.K. - 20.94 pts
PS Jakarta - 19.14 pts
Sydney City - 18.14 pts
Stockholm IK - 16.94 pts
Victoria Falls - 16.94 pts
Port Royal and Medellin being the two teams with a road win and having 4 home games left is an enormous advantage and I believe one of them will finish top of table. Stockholm and Victoria Falls appear to be the leading contenders for last place. Of course tpe development, tactics adjustments, and luck will play a role and render these predictions mostly wrong.
Adowa Accra's record is 3-3-1.
-At home they are 3-1-0, 3.25 g/90, 1 c/90.
-On the road they are 0-2-1, 1.67 g/90, 2.33 c/90.
Atletico Medellin's record is 4-0-3.
-At home they are 3-0-0, 3 g/90, 1 c/90.
-On the road they are 1-0-3, 2 g/90, 3.75 c/90.
Istanbul F.K.'s record is 4-0-3.
-At home they are 4-0-0, 4.25 g/90, 0.75 c/90.
-On the road they are 0-0-3, 0.33 g/90, 4 c/90.
Port Royal F.C.'s record is 4-0-3.
-At home they are 3-0-0, 6.33 g/90, 1.33 c/90.
-On the road they are 1-0-3, 1.25 g/90 , 2.5 c/90.
PS Jakarta's record is 2-2-3.
-At home they are 2-1-0, 2 g/90, 0.33 c/90.
-On the road they are 0-1-3, 0.75 g/90 2.5 c/90.
Stockholm IK's record is 2-2-3.
-At home they are 2-1-1, 2.25 g/90, 1.75 c/90.
-On the road they are 0-1-2, 0.33 g/90, 3 c/90.
Sydney City's record is 2-1-4.
-At home they are 2-1-0 , 3 g/90, 0.33 c/90.
-On the road they are 0-0-4, 1.75 g/90, 5.5 c/90.
Victoria Falls' record is 2-2-3.
-At home they are 2-1-1, 3.25 g/90, 2.5 c/90.
-On the road they are 0-1-2, 1 g/90, 3.67 c/90.
On average home teams conceded 1.18 goals per 90. Away teams conceded 3.43 goals per 90. Every single team has a positive goal differential at home and a negative goal differential while away. Using an extremely simplistic and overfit model based on this too small to be normalized sample I predict that home teams will win about 82% of the time, draw about 12% of the time and lose about 6% of the time. Obviously not all teams are of the same strength but teams are already split into 2 rough tiers based on the table, those on 12 points and those on 7/8. I believe the biggest remaining factor is the amount of home games left. I would expect the 4 teams with 4 home games left to add around 11.14 points and the 4 teams with 3 home games left to add about 8.94 points.
Lets see how that looks with the disclaimer that these predictions will be wrong. Due to me not quite understanding the best way to fit a continuous model into a discrete event like a soccer game, I think I might be understating the possibility of a draw. The actual record of home academy teams(21-5-2) through 7 matchdays does fall within a reasonable variance though.
Port Royal F.C.- 23.14 pts
Atletico Medellin - 23.14 pts
Adowa Accra - 20.94 pts
Istanbul F.K. - 20.94 pts
PS Jakarta - 19.14 pts
Sydney City - 18.14 pts
Stockholm IK - 16.94 pts
Victoria Falls - 16.94 pts
Port Royal and Medellin being the two teams with a road win and having 4 home games left is an enormous advantage and I believe one of them will finish top of table. Stockholm and Victoria Falls appear to be the leading contenders for last place. Of course tpe development, tactics adjustments, and luck will play a role and render these predictions mostly wrong.
![[Image: gmSTbwI.png]](https://i.imgur.com/gmSTbwI.png)
