SSL Forum
Relationship between Current Ability and TPE - Printable Version

+- SSL Forum (https://forum.simulationsoccer.com)
+-- Forum: Player Development (https://forum.simulationsoccer.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=5)
+--- Forum: Capped Point Tasks (https://forum.simulationsoccer.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=23)
+---- Forum: Articles (https://forum.simulationsoccer.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=46)
+---- Thread: Relationship between Current Ability and TPE (/showthread.php?tid=5796)

Relationship between Current Ability and TPE - donut - 2024-10-21

Last week Canadice posted the following message in the Academy Matchdays channel.

[Image: AD_4nXfIROb1E_1EDeNKYRfvgt2OMTDHaccRVUYY...6pjE-cGpsw]

This made me wonder about the correlation between TPE and Current Ability. Does accumulating more TPE directly improve a player's current ability, or is the progression more complex? Could factors like how the TPE is allocated, the player's build, or even game mechanics impact a player's Current Ability beyond just the raw value? And how much does a player's Current Ability affect their performance on the field, does a higher rating always translate to better execution and success in games? Understanding this relationship could offer deeper insights into the strategies behind player development.
What is Current Ability:

In Football Manager, players have Current Ability scores that range from 1 to 200. Current Ability is calculated as a weighted sum of a player's attributes, higher attributes lead to a better player and a higher Current Ability. FM Scout offers a rough benchmark for understanding Current Ability levels:

130: Decent Premier League player
140: Good Premier League player
150: Leading Premier League player
170: World-class player

Methodology:
To analyze the relationship between TPE and Current Ability, I gathered data from almost all SSL Major League players using the Matchday 6 simulation file. I exported each player's Current Ability from the file and then cross-referenced these values with their respective TPE data from the SSL portal. This allowed me to directly compare the TPE each player had accumulated with their current ability rating, giving insights into how closely these two variables are correlated across the league. Using these values I created the following graph:

[Image: AD_4nXdblklJThwvRGJYF5rx-fx_3gG4Ftr3KViL...6pjE-cGpsw]

By simply looking at the graph, it's evident that there is a strong correlation between TPE and Current Ability. The Pearson correlation coefficient between these two variables is 0.933, which indicates an extremely strong positive relationship. This means that as a player's TPE increases, their Current Ability also tends to increase significantly. Additionally, the R-squared value is 0.8705, meaning that approximately 87% of the variation in Current Ability can be explained by TPE alone. This suggests that TPE is a major factor in determining a player's CA, with only 13% of the variance influenced by other factors.

Furthermore, a linear regression analysis estimates the relationship between TPE and Current Ability to be approximately 0.13006X where X represents the TPE value. This indicates that for every ~7.6 increase in TPE, the Current Ability is expected to increase by about 1.

We've established that the correlation between TPE and Current Ability is very strong, but does this translate into actual gameplay performance?

To assess this, we took the Current Ability data mentioned earlier and cross-referenced it with each player's average rating in the SSL index. Doing this we got the following graph:

[Image: AD_4nXfvt1xnzt1GP73vDSmdF1JUBeBv3UEmnqJE...6pjE-cGpsw]

When analyzing the relationship between Current Ability and Average Match Rating, we find a moderate correlation. The Pearson correlation coefficient R is 0.5091, indicating a positive relationship between these two variables. However, this correlation is not as strong as that observed between TPE and Current Ability. The R-squared value, or coefficient of determination, is 0.2592 which means that approximately 25.92% of the variance in Average Match Rating can be explained by Current Ability alone. While that percentage is fairly large, it suggests that about 74% of the variance is influenced by other factors, most notably the team’s performance. This analysis highlights that while Current Ability is an important factor in determining performance ratings, it is not the sole determinant.

Let’s take it a step further and explore how TPE compares to Current Ability across different clubs, especially concerning their standings in the league. By analyzing the average TPE and average Current Ability of the starting elevens for each team, we can create the following graph:

[Image: AD_4nXdWVciqGbiOrIB5hyfsc87Q0VNikxNF_22K...6pjE-cGpsw]

This graph highlights the significant gap between Reykjavik/Schwarzwälder and the rest of the league. It also illustrates how closely clustered the middle-table clubs are to each other. The standings closely mirror the graph but differ in that Reykjavik leads against Schwarzwälder, though only by a single point. Additionally, Hollywood F.C. should be positioned much higher among the middle-table clubs based on their Average Current Ability.

Now that we’ve broadly examined the relationship between TPE and Current Ability, let's delve deeper into the positional level. Are there certain positions that gain Current Ability at a faster rate than others? Do some positions experience increases in Current Ability in stages rather than in a linear fashion? Additionally, are there specific positions that plateau at a certain TPE level?

First, let’s focus on the most important position on the field, strikers (shoutout to Julian Rubio). We compared the TPE and Current Ability of 11 strikers, and here is the graph we obtained:

[Image: AD_4nXfHgUQLvRo7ucdKq7HXYb5FEKBnYfDqYO_c...6pjE-cGpsw]

The striker’s curve is nothing out of the ordinary, it starts strong and levels off over time. Notably, it seems to level off around a Current Ability of 180, indicating that as strikers reach this level, the increase in their Current Ability becomes less pronounced with additional TPE. The highest-rated striker, Schwarzwälder’s Heather Bull, leads the group with a 186 Current Ability rating.

Next, let’s turn our attention to another crucial position in the final third, wingers. We compared the TPE and Current Ability of 16 wingers, and here is the graph we obtained:

[Image: AD_4nXcn27ZGSGA3urgL3JMRoIXGnBrlDlekAFZi...6pjE-cGpsw]

The curve for wingers is almost identical to that of strikers. However, a key difference lies in the data points themselves. While the highest Current Ability for strikers was 186, the top winger, Reykjavik’s very own Furious Chicken, boasts a maximum Current Ability of 200.

Now that we've examined the performance of wingers, let's shift our focus to midfielders. We compared the TPE and Current Ability of 19 midfielders, and here is the graph we obtained:

[Image: AD_4nXe5cV_H44w7y17XvCMVENCa85u8-FN6MP1i...6pjE-cGpsw]

The midfielder curve is fairly standard as well, starting strong and gradually leveling off as it approaches 2000 TPE. This curve suggests that once a midfielder reaches around 2000 TPE, they have the potential to achieve a Current Ability of 200. The midfielder with the highest Current Ability is Schwarzwälder’s Fara Dian with a Current Ability of 194.

Having analyzed the midfielders, let's now turn our attention to defenders. We compared the TPE and Current Ability of 32 defenders, and here is the graph we obtained:

[Image: AD_4nXfjUWEhBSv6wXvhHu91fjcpo-Ww-1vrV52l...6pjE-cGpsw]

The defender curve is almost linear up until around 1500 TPE, where it completely plateaus. This suggests that it’s nearly impossible for a defender to reach the maximum Current Ability of 200, even with higher TPE. The defender with the highest Current Ability is Reykjavik’s Hol LeDiver with a Current Ability of 190.

Now that we've covered defenders, let's move on to goalkeepers. We compared the TPE and Current Ability of 6 goalkeepers, and here is the graph we obtained:

[Image: AD_4nXdtql33vgp207lxX8l3quLeqiPMEEIYa7km...6pjE-cGpsw]

The goalkeeper curve is, at least in my opinion, the perfect career curve. You follow the curve until you max out and hit that glorious 200 Current Ability. The goalkeeper with the highest Current Ability is Schwarzwälder’s Muunokhoi Sarantsatsral with a Current Ability of 200.

Conclusion:

Our analysis reveals a strong correlation between TPE and Current Ability, but while accumulating TPE does lead to an increase in Current Ability, the progression differs across positions. Strikers and wingers tend to plateau around 1750 TPE, while defenders experience a clear plateau around 1500 TPE, making it harder for them to reach the maximum rating. Midfielders and goalkeepers, on the other hand, show a steady progression, with some reaching the peak of 200 Current Ability. However, as seen from the moderate correlation between Current Ability and Average Match Ratings, factors beyond TPE and Current ability, most notably team performance, also play significant roles in overall player success.

TLDR: 7.6 TPE = 1 Current Ability, strong correlation between Current Ability and TPE

Well, that's it, bye. (Can I please have 1 million for this :p )

RE: Relationship between Current Ability and TPE - CROney3 - 2024-10-21

So basically, doing an Activity Check (6 TPE) gets you close to 1 Current Ability since you said on average, 7.6 TPE gets you 1 Current Ability. So with a starting TPE of 350, we have a starting Ability of about 46. That really does put into perspective how much effort it does take into getting to a 200 Current Ability. Or does it...

I've been here for just about 1 month and have gained 114 TPE since I've started, which translates to approximately 15 Current Ability points. If I stayed on that pace, it would take about 10 months to reach a CA of 200. Each season is 10 weeks (9 weeks for the season and 1 week for offseason), equaling about 2.5 months. So according to the math laid out previously, it should only take 4ish seasons before you hit 200 CA, which seems not long, since you don't start regressing until your 9th season.

I'm sure I'm completely wrong in my math, and I know it's not a direct 1:1 for TPE and CA, but based on the napkin math above, it feels like we should be seeing many more people with 200 CA since we do have lots of high TPE players. I wonder if it works like an RPG type progression system where it's harder to "level up" your CA with having more TPE as you're expected to be good? I don't know. I've had a few seltzers tonight and this sounded fun to look at. Definitely an incredible article!

RE: Relationship between Current Ability and TPE - donut - 2024-10-22

(2024-10-21, 09:28 PM)CROney3 Wrote: So basically, doing an Activity Check (6 TPE) gets you close to 1 Current Ability since you said on average, 7.6 TPE gets you 1 Current Ability. So with a starting TPE of 350, we have a starting Ability of about 46. That really does put into perspective how much effort it does take into getting to a 200 Current Ability. Or does it...

I've been here for just about 1 month and have gained 114 TPE since I've started, which translates to approximately 15 Current Ability points. If I stayed on that pace, it would take about 10 months to reach a CA of 200. Each season is 10 weeks (9 weeks for the season and 1 week for offseason), equaling about 2.5 months. So according to the math laid out previously, it should only take 4ish seasons before you hit 200 CA, which seems not long, since you don't start regressing until your 9th season.

I'm sure I'm completely wrong in my math, and I know it's not a direct 1:1 for TPE and CA, but based on the napkin math above, it feels like we should be seeing many more people with 200 CA since we do have lots of high TPE players. I wonder if it works like an RPG type progression system where it's harder to "level up" your CA with having more TPE as you're expected to be good? I don't know. I've had a few seltzers tonight and this sounded fun to look at. Definitely an incredible article!

You're absolutely right to question the progression curve, and I have to admit, forgetting to account for the TPE scale in my original analysis was my mistake, whoops. Your estimate of reaching 200 Current Ability in about 4 seasons makes sense based on a linear approach that I presented, but as you pointed out, the TPE-to-CA relationship isn’t linear. Early gains in CA are very noticeable, but the returns diminish as you increase your attributes, which is why even high TPE earners don’t automatically see big jumps in CA.

That’s also why we don’t see many players with 200 CA, despite their high TPE. And to be honest, there are probably other factors in FM that I don't fully understand either.

RE: Relationship between Current Ability and TPE - FuriousChicken - 2024-10-25

First off, great article, secondly a thing about CA in FM is that it is not 1-on-1 with what is most important. For example it is generally agreed that pace and acceleration is great on each position, however in FM I think only wingers (maybe wingbacks as well) has the max CA weight on these stats.