2024-10-21, 12:56 PM - Word count:
(This post was last modified: 2024-10-21, 12:57 PM by donut. Edited 1 time in total.)
Last week Canadice posted the following message in the Academy Matchdays channel.
![[Image: AD_4nXfIROb1E_1EDeNKYRfvgt2OMTDHaccRVUYY...6pjE-cGpsw]](https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfIROb1E_1EDeNKYRfvgt2OMTDHaccRVUYYLSeyj_N3efJ4lgHBG_ihtQqUGzLDmYOVFy5SDXzWROhoxFIyHWdgmItRlXT4suyH-9Lwx0SgHEKDqZeR5P5SppzBQ4klfazwOqdSE7Fyr_-K9U5NjpZ2r-M?key=_2iokmGfJHfI6pjE-cGpsw)
This made me wonder about the correlation between TPE and Current Ability. Does accumulating more TPE directly improve a player's current ability, or is the progression more complex? Could factors like how the TPE is allocated, the player's build, or even game mechanics impact a player's Current Ability beyond just the raw value? And how much does a player's Current Ability affect their performance on the field, does a higher rating always translate to better execution and success in games? Understanding this relationship could offer deeper insights into the strategies behind player development.
What is Current Ability:
In Football Manager, players have Current Ability scores that range from 1 to 200. Current Ability is calculated as a weighted sum of a player's attributes, higher attributes lead to a better player and a higher Current Ability. FM Scout offers a rough benchmark for understanding Current Ability levels:
130: Decent Premier League player
140: Good Premier League player
150: Leading Premier League player
170: World-class player
Methodology:
To analyze the relationship between TPE and Current Ability, I gathered data from almost all SSL Major League players using the Matchday 6 simulation file. I exported each player's Current Ability from the file and then cross-referenced these values with their respective TPE data from the SSL portal. This allowed me to directly compare the TPE each player had accumulated with their current ability rating, giving insights into how closely these two variables are correlated across the league. Using these values I created the following graph:
![[Image: AD_4nXdblklJThwvRGJYF5rx-fx_3gG4Ftr3KViL...6pjE-cGpsw]](https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdblklJThwvRGJYF5rx-fx_3gG4Ftr3KViLqOiPDIVWfjbeBM83m8IjlpfdvbM66vAWCbK0GPlneK1-KhcxycjzUhUlGrCTCYC4QIk56vlU-qK9fr0-krsL4VFBV74y7UaaVnBg3lha0aHb5wcyNp2wx7bS?key=_2iokmGfJHfI6pjE-cGpsw)
By simply looking at the graph, it's evident that there is a strong correlation between TPE and Current Ability. The Pearson correlation coefficient between these two variables is 0.933, which indicates an extremely strong positive relationship. This means that as a player's TPE increases, their Current Ability also tends to increase significantly. Additionally, the R-squared value is 0.8705, meaning that approximately 87% of the variation in Current Ability can be explained by TPE alone. This suggests that TPE is a major factor in determining a player's CA, with only 13% of the variance influenced by other factors.
Furthermore, a linear regression analysis estimates the relationship between TPE and Current Ability to be approximately 0.13006X where X represents the TPE value. This indicates that for every ~7.6 increase in TPE, the Current Ability is expected to increase by about 1.
We've established that the correlation between TPE and Current Ability is very strong, but does this translate into actual gameplay performance?
To assess this, we took the Current Ability data mentioned earlier and cross-referenced it with each player's average rating in the SSL index. Doing this we got the following graph:
![[Image: AD_4nXfvt1xnzt1GP73vDSmdF1JUBeBv3UEmnqJE...6pjE-cGpsw]](https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfvt1xnzt1GP73vDSmdF1JUBeBv3UEmnqJE31OvmxiXW8OtfVoAlAFR-mT-MqIRgQ7IPqSxKDXErg_Fht8pSXgT6cgwb6urPkoMgA-QpKtLRFWoai7FQdqfvIvHQVPI2HoRIc18HYA90ZDISRz8hvkvChI?key=_2iokmGfJHfI6pjE-cGpsw)
When analyzing the relationship between Current Ability and Average Match Rating, we find a moderate correlation. The Pearson correlation coefficient R is 0.5091, indicating a positive relationship between these two variables. However, this correlation is not as strong as that observed between TPE and Current Ability. The R-squared value, or coefficient of determination, is 0.2592 which means that approximately 25.92% of the variance in Average Match Rating can be explained by Current Ability alone. While that percentage is fairly large, it suggests that about 74% of the variance is influenced by other factors, most notably the team’s performance. This analysis highlights that while Current Ability is an important factor in determining performance ratings, it is not the sole determinant.
Let’s take it a step further and explore how TPE compares to Current Ability across different clubs, especially concerning their standings in the league. By analyzing the average TPE and average Current Ability of the starting elevens for each team, we can create the following graph:
![[Image: AD_4nXdWVciqGbiOrIB5hyfsc87Q0VNikxNF_22K...6pjE-cGpsw]](https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdWVciqGbiOrIB5hyfsc87Q0VNikxNF_22KmQJUO1FZwa86ULt6FOYQV-x04E1TbBjwNZM8bAvAEOwWrtaM4bArAxZ-XaZmL5WRXfRnKv6ZPEAUmzGWxdPAgKaSvNEjVmQ8PEIGUSARr7bngz7Dqpf4Dzds?key=_2iokmGfJHfI6pjE-cGpsw)
This graph highlights the significant gap between Reykjavik/Schwarzwälder and the rest of the league. It also illustrates how closely clustered the middle-table clubs are to each other. The standings closely mirror the graph but differ in that Reykjavik leads against Schwarzwälder, though only by a single point. Additionally, Hollywood F.C. should be positioned much higher among the middle-table clubs based on their Average Current Ability.
Now that we’ve broadly examined the relationship between TPE and Current Ability, let's delve deeper into the positional level. Are there certain positions that gain Current Ability at a faster rate than others? Do some positions experience increases in Current Ability in stages rather than in a linear fashion? Additionally, are there specific positions that plateau at a certain TPE level?
First, let’s focus on the most important position on the field, strikers (shoutout to Julian Rubio). We compared the TPE and Current Ability of 11 strikers, and here is the graph we obtained:
![[Image: AD_4nXfHgUQLvRo7ucdKq7HXYb5FEKBnYfDqYO_c...6pjE-cGpsw]](https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfHgUQLvRo7ucdKq7HXYb5FEKBnYfDqYO_crWav_mT9oMDaFyyHAEootld2E4Zod3yzl9BHIwfCN1A64jzPEGlZfVTP_bnA0ddfoEn3_UFnMERpdCTJDKk6Hj4YZMvBNMXgOkFkcwsOK1VKWAoA35vpKNk?key=_2iokmGfJHfI6pjE-cGpsw)
The striker’s curve is nothing out of the ordinary, it starts strong and levels off over time. Notably, it seems to level off around a Current Ability of 180, indicating that as strikers reach this level, the increase in their Current Ability becomes less pronounced with additional TPE. The highest-rated striker, Schwarzwälder’s Heather Bull, leads the group with a 186 Current Ability rating.
Next, let’s turn our attention to another crucial position in the final third, wingers. We compared the TPE and Current Ability of 16 wingers, and here is the graph we obtained:
![[Image: AD_4nXcn27ZGSGA3urgL3JMRoIXGnBrlDlekAFZi...6pjE-cGpsw]](https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcn27ZGSGA3urgL3JMRoIXGnBrlDlekAFZiCP0Uxsd0Sv-1nuCdGhMjiatTQQwLrnu37UwExljokOI-UzDI4GotNb0GyCqmo392PMmkKYzVIKDKG-KlSLUzs41nr5ZSeGtIOqdFAgZR8BAbKF8TRtYri9t5?key=_2iokmGfJHfI6pjE-cGpsw)
The curve for wingers is almost identical to that of strikers. However, a key difference lies in the data points themselves. While the highest Current Ability for strikers was 186, the top winger, Reykjavik’s very own Furious Chicken, boasts a maximum Current Ability of 200.
Now that we've examined the performance of wingers, let's shift our focus to midfielders. We compared the TPE and Current Ability of 19 midfielders, and here is the graph we obtained:
![[Image: AD_4nXe5cV_H44w7y17XvCMVENCa85u8-FN6MP1i...6pjE-cGpsw]](https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXe5cV_H44w7y17XvCMVENCa85u8-FN6MP1igYTtbGoCOalS8cwhsbMExQAKZHk-RJGI3VZQsuYYkB5ITcpLOvBn-8U08mlALv3Y5lZeSJjQNtOtp5hJloXai4UCs8GJS1Ru0CoZfOgHB-yHmDqQtfQeARop?key=_2iokmGfJHfI6pjE-cGpsw)
The midfielder curve is fairly standard as well, starting strong and gradually leveling off as it approaches 2000 TPE. This curve suggests that once a midfielder reaches around 2000 TPE, they have the potential to achieve a Current Ability of 200. The midfielder with the highest Current Ability is Schwarzwälder’s Fara Dian with a Current Ability of 194.
Having analyzed the midfielders, let's now turn our attention to defenders. We compared the TPE and Current Ability of 32 defenders, and here is the graph we obtained:
![[Image: AD_4nXfjUWEhBSv6wXvhHu91fjcpo-Ww-1vrV52l...6pjE-cGpsw]](https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfjUWEhBSv6wXvhHu91fjcpo-Ww-1vrV52l-Xf48OgK0TsTSBaKilCBQAqp5SQglT5xVgj40QlUdkxZuAKD0KgX3evDlz4fTlyJ7o6l7uAq46pdFGBbrvriaTtkzG0xTgVec46qwK3yWR3I9rH2J48t5TGw?key=_2iokmGfJHfI6pjE-cGpsw)
The defender curve is almost linear up until around 1500 TPE, where it completely plateaus. This suggests that it’s nearly impossible for a defender to reach the maximum Current Ability of 200, even with higher TPE. The defender with the highest Current Ability is Reykjavik’s Hol LeDiver with a Current Ability of 190.
Now that we've covered defenders, let's move on to goalkeepers. We compared the TPE and Current Ability of 6 goalkeepers, and here is the graph we obtained:
![[Image: AD_4nXdtql33vgp207lxX8l3quLeqiPMEEIYa7km...6pjE-cGpsw]](https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdtql33vgp207lxX8l3quLeqiPMEEIYa7km8lpKhqeFxJAowRDpia1lCFvEhqLkutgqa4IovGxSaYqn6WUlo5OldWyhOKTtJ1dRmcqAMx6NB25VW6fONAd4SsloPkIknQXgLjVjBpcYO07YgZW8dLjHYJGz?key=_2iokmGfJHfI6pjE-cGpsw)
The goalkeeper curve is, at least in my opinion, the perfect career curve. You follow the curve until you max out and hit that glorious 200 Current Ability. The goalkeeper with the highest Current Ability is Schwarzwälder’s Muunokhoi Sarantsatsral with a Current Ability of 200.
Conclusion:
Our analysis reveals a strong correlation between TPE and Current Ability, but while accumulating TPE does lead to an increase in Current Ability, the progression differs across positions. Strikers and wingers tend to plateau around 1750 TPE, while defenders experience a clear plateau around 1500 TPE, making it harder for them to reach the maximum rating. Midfielders and goalkeepers, on the other hand, show a steady progression, with some reaching the peak of 200 Current Ability. However, as seen from the moderate correlation between Current Ability and Average Match Ratings, factors beyond TPE and Current ability, most notably team performance, also play significant roles in overall player success.
TLDR: 7.6 TPE = 1 Current Ability, strong correlation between Current Ability and TPE
Well, that's it, bye. (Can I please have 1 million for this :p )
This made me wonder about the correlation between TPE and Current Ability. Does accumulating more TPE directly improve a player's current ability, or is the progression more complex? Could factors like how the TPE is allocated, the player's build, or even game mechanics impact a player's Current Ability beyond just the raw value? And how much does a player's Current Ability affect their performance on the field, does a higher rating always translate to better execution and success in games? Understanding this relationship could offer deeper insights into the strategies behind player development.
What is Current Ability:
In Football Manager, players have Current Ability scores that range from 1 to 200. Current Ability is calculated as a weighted sum of a player's attributes, higher attributes lead to a better player and a higher Current Ability. FM Scout offers a rough benchmark for understanding Current Ability levels:
130: Decent Premier League player
140: Good Premier League player
150: Leading Premier League player
170: World-class player
Methodology:
To analyze the relationship between TPE and Current Ability, I gathered data from almost all SSL Major League players using the Matchday 6 simulation file. I exported each player's Current Ability from the file and then cross-referenced these values with their respective TPE data from the SSL portal. This allowed me to directly compare the TPE each player had accumulated with their current ability rating, giving insights into how closely these two variables are correlated across the league. Using these values I created the following graph:
By simply looking at the graph, it's evident that there is a strong correlation between TPE and Current Ability. The Pearson correlation coefficient between these two variables is 0.933, which indicates an extremely strong positive relationship. This means that as a player's TPE increases, their Current Ability also tends to increase significantly. Additionally, the R-squared value is 0.8705, meaning that approximately 87% of the variation in Current Ability can be explained by TPE alone. This suggests that TPE is a major factor in determining a player's CA, with only 13% of the variance influenced by other factors.
Furthermore, a linear regression analysis estimates the relationship between TPE and Current Ability to be approximately 0.13006X where X represents the TPE value. This indicates that for every ~7.6 increase in TPE, the Current Ability is expected to increase by about 1.
We've established that the correlation between TPE and Current Ability is very strong, but does this translate into actual gameplay performance?
To assess this, we took the Current Ability data mentioned earlier and cross-referenced it with each player's average rating in the SSL index. Doing this we got the following graph:
When analyzing the relationship between Current Ability and Average Match Rating, we find a moderate correlation. The Pearson correlation coefficient R is 0.5091, indicating a positive relationship between these two variables. However, this correlation is not as strong as that observed between TPE and Current Ability. The R-squared value, or coefficient of determination, is 0.2592 which means that approximately 25.92% of the variance in Average Match Rating can be explained by Current Ability alone. While that percentage is fairly large, it suggests that about 74% of the variance is influenced by other factors, most notably the team’s performance. This analysis highlights that while Current Ability is an important factor in determining performance ratings, it is not the sole determinant.
Let’s take it a step further and explore how TPE compares to Current Ability across different clubs, especially concerning their standings in the league. By analyzing the average TPE and average Current Ability of the starting elevens for each team, we can create the following graph:
This graph highlights the significant gap between Reykjavik/Schwarzwälder and the rest of the league. It also illustrates how closely clustered the middle-table clubs are to each other. The standings closely mirror the graph but differ in that Reykjavik leads against Schwarzwälder, though only by a single point. Additionally, Hollywood F.C. should be positioned much higher among the middle-table clubs based on their Average Current Ability.
Now that we’ve broadly examined the relationship between TPE and Current Ability, let's delve deeper into the positional level. Are there certain positions that gain Current Ability at a faster rate than others? Do some positions experience increases in Current Ability in stages rather than in a linear fashion? Additionally, are there specific positions that plateau at a certain TPE level?
First, let’s focus on the most important position on the field, strikers (shoutout to Julian Rubio). We compared the TPE and Current Ability of 11 strikers, and here is the graph we obtained:
The striker’s curve is nothing out of the ordinary, it starts strong and levels off over time. Notably, it seems to level off around a Current Ability of 180, indicating that as strikers reach this level, the increase in their Current Ability becomes less pronounced with additional TPE. The highest-rated striker, Schwarzwälder’s Heather Bull, leads the group with a 186 Current Ability rating.
Next, let’s turn our attention to another crucial position in the final third, wingers. We compared the TPE and Current Ability of 16 wingers, and here is the graph we obtained:
The curve for wingers is almost identical to that of strikers. However, a key difference lies in the data points themselves. While the highest Current Ability for strikers was 186, the top winger, Reykjavik’s very own Furious Chicken, boasts a maximum Current Ability of 200.
Now that we've examined the performance of wingers, let's shift our focus to midfielders. We compared the TPE and Current Ability of 19 midfielders, and here is the graph we obtained:
The midfielder curve is fairly standard as well, starting strong and gradually leveling off as it approaches 2000 TPE. This curve suggests that once a midfielder reaches around 2000 TPE, they have the potential to achieve a Current Ability of 200. The midfielder with the highest Current Ability is Schwarzwälder’s Fara Dian with a Current Ability of 194.
Having analyzed the midfielders, let's now turn our attention to defenders. We compared the TPE and Current Ability of 32 defenders, and here is the graph we obtained:
The defender curve is almost linear up until around 1500 TPE, where it completely plateaus. This suggests that it’s nearly impossible for a defender to reach the maximum Current Ability of 200, even with higher TPE. The defender with the highest Current Ability is Reykjavik’s Hol LeDiver with a Current Ability of 190.
Now that we've covered defenders, let's move on to goalkeepers. We compared the TPE and Current Ability of 6 goalkeepers, and here is the graph we obtained:
The goalkeeper curve is, at least in my opinion, the perfect career curve. You follow the curve until you max out and hit that glorious 200 Current Ability. The goalkeeper with the highest Current Ability is Schwarzwälder’s Muunokhoi Sarantsatsral with a Current Ability of 200.
Conclusion:
Our analysis reveals a strong correlation between TPE and Current Ability, but while accumulating TPE does lead to an increase in Current Ability, the progression differs across positions. Strikers and wingers tend to plateau around 1750 TPE, while defenders experience a clear plateau around 1500 TPE, making it harder for them to reach the maximum rating. Midfielders and goalkeepers, on the other hand, show a steady progression, with some reaching the peak of 200 Current Ability. However, as seen from the moderate correlation between Current Ability and Average Match Ratings, factors beyond TPE and Current ability, most notably team performance, also play significant roles in overall player success.
TLDR: 7.6 TPE = 1 Current Ability, strong correlation between Current Ability and TPE
Well, that's it, bye. (Can I please have 1 million for this :p )
